2705 Overview Rd · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1997 2,178 sqft lot $122/sqft · 12% above area Est $147k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Sellers. Bring all offers. Welcome to 2705 Overview in Granbury, Texas—a well-maintained investment opportunity located in a desirable and growing area. This property offers strong rental potential with an established tenant already in place, making it an ideal addition to any investor’s portfolio. The home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a well-appointed kitchen, and ample natural light throughout. The exterior provides a manageable yard and attractive curb appeal, contributing to long-term tenant satisfaction and retention. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares, this property offers both accessibility and neighborhood appeal. Please note: The property is currently tenant-occupied. Showings will be scheduled only after receipt of a valid offer accompanied by a preapproval letter. Do not disturb tenant.

Key facts

• Established tenant
• Functional layout
• 2,178 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• ESTABLISHED TENANT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.63%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,739
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 12.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2654 Edgecliff Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	12mo	$150,000	$112	84
2703 Rockcliff Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+1%)	14mo	$120,000	$88	84
2614 Sycamore Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	4mo	$175,000	$130	75
3007 Oak Wood St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+9%)	5mo	$29,990	$20	61
3001 Elmwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-12%)	4mo	$157,500	$132	58
3806 Oak Meadow St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-7%)	11mo	$150,000	$119	57
3210 Robinhood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-6%)	1mo	$144,900	$113	56
3011 Mistletoe St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	6mo	$139,400	$115	55
2723 Cypress St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	2mo	$147,500	$121	50
4425 W Oak Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-15%)	17mo	$149,900	$129	47
4321 Terri Lee Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+2%)	19mo	$189,000	$136	42
2606 Hilltop Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+13%)	23mo	$165,000	$107	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,987
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $31,032
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $911/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.68mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    listed $175,000 Active 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    Motivated Sellers. Bring all offers. Welcome to 2705 Overview in Granbury, Texas—a well-maintained investment opportunity located in a desirable and growing area. This property offers strong rental potential with an established tenant already in place, making it an ideal addition to any investor’s portfolio. The home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a well-appointed kitchen, and ample natural light throughout. The exterior provides a manageable yard and attractive curb appeal, contributing to long-term tenant satisfaction and retention. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares, this property offers both accessibility and neighborhood appeal. Please note: The property is currently tenant-occupied. Showings will be scheduled only after receipt of a valid offer accompanied by a preapproval letter. Do not disturb tenant.

15. 2025-07-18
    historical $1,600
16. 2025-06-02
    listed $1,600
17. 2024-05-25
    historical $1,395
18. 2023-11-16
    price $1,395
19. 2023-09-03
    listed
20. 2023-08-30
    historical
21. 2022-01-12
    soldstatus
22. 2015-10-05
    soldstatus Sold 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Three bedroom two bath double wide on a lot in OTS. Home needs some TLC and is sold as is with no Seller repairs or warranties. Subject will be on the market for 3 days before submitting any offers to seller. Buyer to confirm all information concerning the property like lot size, room sizes, condition.

23. 2015-09-04
    status Pending 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Three bedroom two bath double wide on a lot in OTS. Home needs some TLC and is sold as is with no Seller repairs or warranties. Subject will be on the market for 3 days before submitting any offers to seller. Buyer to confirm all information concerning the property like lot size, room sizes, condition.

24. 2015-08-28
    listed $35,000 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Three bedroom two bath double wide on a lot in OTS. Home needs some TLC and is sold as is with no Seller repairs or warranties. Subject will be on the market for 3 days before submitting any offers to seller. Buyer to confirm all information concerning the property like lot size, room sizes, condition.

25. 2012-01-28
    historical
26. 2011-10-31
    price $59,000
27. 2011-07-27
    listed $75,000 Active
28. 2009-10-15
    soldstatus
29. 2009-07-28
    historical
30. 2009-06-29
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,108/yr (+$176/mo · 231.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$911
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$913
• After-tax cash flow: $5,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+250.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-18 Rental Removed $1,600 RentEngineListings
• 2025-06-02 Listed for Rent $1,600 RentEngineListings
• 2024-05-25 Rental Removed $1,395 BUILDIUM
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $1,395 BUILDIUM
• 2023-09-03 Listed for Rent — BUILDIUM
• 2023-08-30 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2022-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-09-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-08-28 Listed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2012-01-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-10-31 Price Changed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2011-07-27 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2009-10-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-07-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-06-29 Listed $49,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $911 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.