1317 Hidden Fawn · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · Manufactured public records · 423 Days on market

Built 1979 0.51 ac lot $112/sqft · 13% above area Est $141k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A perfect lake retreat! This nicely redone 3-2 manufactured home on a double lot, .51 acres, "checks all of the boxes." It has new windows, paint, floors, and more. Nice level lots with plenty of shade and room to do more. It is minutes from the lake, New Braunfels, San Antonio, shopping, and all of the conveniences of life. Come buy your spot in the Hill Country.

Key facts

• New floors
• Level lots
• Lake retreat

Tags

• LAKE RETREAT
• DOUBLE LOT
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORS
• LEVEL LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 423 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 423 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.23%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,061
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 13.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1584 Hidden Fawn	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-1%)	7mo	$125,000	$89	75
125 Queen Anne Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	6mo	$305,000	$195	65
223 Oaklane St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+4%)	15mo	$192,980	$131	56
4559 Chamberlain	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	5mo	$150,000	$96	55
442 Buckhorn Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-14%)	12mo	$95,000	$77	51
4508 Chamberlain Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-15%)	20mo	$65,000	$53	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,209
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $14,745
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,238

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Scenic Run Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	43d	1	0.09mi
252 Sir Winston Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,495	$1.16	43d	1	0.25mi
532 Grandview Bnd Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,450	$1.08	20d	1	0.62mi
270 Ridgerock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	43d	1	0.64mi
127 Quail Run St Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	43d	1	0.65mi
324 Ridgerock Dr Unit 1 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	24d	1	0.67mi
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	24d	1	0.79mi
1015 Twin Deer Ln Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,995	$1.36	43d	1	0.79mi
634 Flatrock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,400	$1.92	43d	1	1.02mi
668 Creekside Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,225	$1.25	43d	1	1.08mi
705 Firefly Dr Unit 1365728P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,127	$2.27	2d	1	1.11mi
446 W Overlook Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,825	$1.31	43d	1	1.16mi
1219 Lakeside Dr E Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,180	$1.79	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 423 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 422 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 421 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 420 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 418 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 414 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 409 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 408 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 406 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 405 DOM
14. 2025-10-22
    status Back on Market 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    A perfect lake retreat! This nicely redone 3-2 manufactured home on a double lot, .51 acres, "checks all of the boxes." It has new windows, paint, floors, and more. Nice level lots with plenty of shade and room to do more. It is minutes from the lake, New Braunfels, San Antonio, shopping, and all of the conveniences of life. Come buy your spot in the Hill Country.

15. 2025-09-22
    historical Active Option 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    A perfect lake retreat! This nicely redone 3-2 manufactured home on a double lot, .51 acres, "checks all of the boxes." It has new windows, paint, floors, and more. Nice level lots with plenty of shade and room to do more. It is minutes from the lake, New Braunfels, San Antonio, shopping, and all of the conveniences of life. Come buy your spot in the Hill Country.

16. 2025-05-23
    price $159,900 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    A perfect lake retreat! This nicely redone 3-2 manufactured home on a double lot, .51 acres, "checks all of the boxes." It has new windows, paint, floors, and more. Nice level lots with plenty of shade and room to do more. It is minutes from the lake, New Braunfels, San Antonio, shopping, and all of the conveniences of life. Come buy your spot in the Hill Country.

17. 2025-05-10
    price $174,900 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    A perfect lake retreat! This nicely redone 3-2 manufactured home on a double lot, .51 acres, "checks all of the boxes." It has new windows, paint, floors, and more. Nice level lots with plenty of shade and room to do more. It is minutes from the lake, New Braunfels, San Antonio, shopping, and all of the conveniences of life. Come buy your spot in the Hill Country.

18. 2025-04-21
    listed $184,900 New 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    A perfect lake retreat! This nicely redone 3-2 manufactured home on a double lot, .51 acres, "checks all of the boxes." It has new windows, paint, floors, and more. Nice level lots with plenty of shade and room to do more. It is minutes from the lake, New Braunfels, San Antonio, shopping, and all of the conveniences of life. Come buy your spot in the Hill Country.

19. 2024-12-31
    historical
20. 2024-11-09
    status Back on Market
21. 2024-10-31
    historical
22. 2024-07-12
    price $165,000
23. 2024-06-08
    listed $140,000 New
24. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2022-05-23
    status Pending
26. 2022-05-12
    historical Active Option
27. 2022-04-20
    price $120,000
28. 2022-03-25
    listed $125,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $870 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,056/yr (+$171/mo · 236.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$725
• After-tax cash flow: $4,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-09-22 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $159,900 LERA
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $174,900 LERA
• 2025-04-21 Listed $184,900 LERA
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-11-09 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $165,000 LERA
• 2024-06-08 Listed $140,000 LERA
• 2022-05-25 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-05-23 Pending — LERA
• 2022-05-12 Contingent — LERA
• 2022-04-20 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2022-03-25 Listed $125,000 LERA

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $870 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.