1111 Archwood Dr SW #285 · Olympia, WA 98502

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2018 $79/sqft · 42% above area Est $79k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful doublewide for sale at Friendly Ridge: 2018 built with high vaulted ceilings, open floor plan with 2 bedrooms and Den, 1431 sq. ft. Potential for 3rd bedroom if desired. Beautiful Kitchen with knotty pine soft close cabinets open to Living/Dining rooms. Large Primary bedroom w/ LG bath & great storage. Immaculately maintained and feels like new. The vaulted ceilings and open floor plan make this feel very open and spacious. Friendly Ridge is ready with an updated clubhouse with great amenities, and the community is close to everything Olympia has to offer! Come make it yours!

Key facts

• Built 2018
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $788 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Julia Butler Hansen Elementary (484 students, 48% FRL); Thurgood Marshall Middle School (441 students, 54% FRL); Capital High School (1,326 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 25% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.37%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,479
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 44.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Archwood Dr SW #285	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,431 (-2%)	1mo	$105,000	$73	96
1111 Archwood Dr SW #204	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	85
1111 Archwood Dr SW #327	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-4%)	8mo	$215,000	$153	79
1111 Archwood Dr SW #306	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	4mo	$75,000	$48	78
1111 Archwood Dr SW #200	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	78
1111 Archwood Dr SW #263	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	7mo	$85,000	$64	75
1111 Archwood Dr SW #418	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	2mo	$22,000	$16	70
1111 Archwood Dr SW #242	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,372 (-6%)	16mo	$145,950	$106	68
1111 Archwood Dr SW #429	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (+5%)	11mo	$75,000	$49	65
1111 Archwood Dr SW #213	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	14mo	$150,000	$96	64
1111 Archwood Dr SW #202	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	14mo	$110,000	$70	62
1111 Archwood Dr SW #447	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-14%)	11mo	$79,500	$64	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $113,181
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.15×
• Total profit: $294,551
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,753/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $821	+0% $788	+5% $756	+10% $723
Rent	-10% $630	-5% $709	+0% $788	+5% $867	+10% $947
Rate	-1.0pp $846	-0.5pp $817	base $788	+0.5pp $758	+1.0pp $728

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3311 6th Ave SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$2,082	$2.35	15d	16	0.11mi
800 Yauger Way SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,131	$2.06	15d	13	0.29mi
1309 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,906	$2.37	15d	2	0.65mi
2800 Limited Ln NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,503	$1.94	15d	4	0.67mi
1220 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	45d	2	0.73mi
1000 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,281	$2.56	15d	8	0.75mi
300 Kenyon St NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,995	$2.27	15d	6	0.76mi
1900 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,823	$1.97	15d	13	0.76mi
2010 8th Ct SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,295	$2.14	22d	1	0.78mi
600 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	851	$1,600	$1.88	15d	23	0.82mi
4611 Greenwood Dr SW Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1448	$2,495	$1.72	45d	1	0.89mi
121 Decatur St NW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	22d	1	1.01mi
125 Decatur St NW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	22d	1	1.02mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	45d	1	1.05mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit A Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,995	$1.60	45d	1	1.05mi
1626 Madison Ave NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,100	$1.97	15d	1	1.21mi
5004 4th Way SW Olympia, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1271	$1,845	$1.45	15d	5	1.26mi
1221 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,749	$1.99	15d	2	1.33mi
1415 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,735	$1.65	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   status Active
3. 2026-04-24
   price $115,000
4. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-26
   status Active
6. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-22
   listed $124,900 Active
8. 2024-05-31
   soldstatus $108,000 Closed
9. 2024-05-14
   status Pending
10. 2024-05-14
    status Active
11. 2024-05-11
    status Pending
12. 2024-05-02
    status Active
13. 2024-04-23
    status Pending
14. 2024-04-15
    price $109,997
15. 2024-04-04
    listed $119,997 Active
16. 2019-05-29
    soldstatus $119,707 Sold
17. 2019-05-03
    status Pending
18. 2019-04-02
    price $119,707
19. 2019-01-23
    listed $129,707 Active
20. 2012-09-21
    historical
21. 2012-09-20
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold
22. 2012-09-17
    status Pending
23. 2012-08-13
    price $35,000
24. 2012-06-18
    price $49,900
25. 2012-03-13
    listed $59,900 Active
26. 2003-08-26
    soldstatus $7,900
27. 2003-02-26
    listed $7,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,753
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $8,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,947
• After-tax cash flow: $7,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1355.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $124,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) $108,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $109,997 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Listed $119,997 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-29 Sold (MLS) $119,707 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-02 Price Changed $119,707 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-23 Listed $129,707 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-21 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-20 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-13 Price Changed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-18 Price Changed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-13 Listed $59,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-26 Sold (MLS) $7,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-26 Listed $7,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,753 · +18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.