92 Water St · Lyons, NY 14489

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,873 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1880 8,276 sqft lot Est $133k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath Foursquare-style home offering classic character, flexible living space, and room to make it your own. Features include a covered front porch, back deck, first-floor laundry and first floor bedroom. Convenient location with easy access to local amenities. Whether you are looking for extra space or to grow your investment portfolio this property has opportunity and potential. Tenant occupied but expected to be delivered vacant.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• First floor laundry
• Back deck

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Public water available; Water listed as not connected (conflicting info)
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Gravel driveway; Irregular lot; Road fronting on a main thoroughfare

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#270 in NY, #4,307 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lyons Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #549 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $145k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,983
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
98 Canal St	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,881 (+0%)	5mo	$43,000	$23	68
166 Water St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,732 (-8%)	8mo	$88,000	$51	67
41 Holley St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,868 (-0%)	3mo	$165,000	$88	62
4 Geneva St	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,960 (+5%)	10mo	$127,200	$65	61
46 Spencer St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,788 (-4%)	8mo	$230,000	$129	54
30 Phelps St	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,032 (+8%)	7mo	$145,000	$71	53
4 Sunset Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,121 (+13%)	6mo	$247,000	$116	52
165 Geneva St	0.57mi	3/1.5	2,037 (+9%)	9mo	$63,000	$31	50
30 Cherry St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,698 (-9%)	14mo	$175,000	$103	49
58 Elmer St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,020 (+8%)	7mo	$45,000	$22	48
40 Spencer St	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,660 (-11%)	4mo	$149,900	$90	40
60 Jackson St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-10%)	13mo	$85,000	$51	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $96,786
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $271,197
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14489

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,001/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $361	-5% $320	+0% $279	+5% $238	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $211	+0% $279	+5% $346	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $316	base $279	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $145,000 Active
17. 2016-10-16
    historical
18. 2016-03-14
    price $87,000
19. 2015-09-03
    listed $89,000 Active
20. 2005-03-30
    soldstatus $50,000
21. 1999-10-29
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,001 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,001 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,001
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$277
• After-tax cash flow: $3,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyons Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $43,076
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5909
• State rank: #549 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #4307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,016

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.65%
• Current HPI: 311.1445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+262.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $145,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-10-16 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2016-03-14 Price Changed $87,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-09-03 Listed $89,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,001 · +74.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.