2050 W State Route 89-a -- #176 · Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 182 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $162k · 20% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Best of Pine Shadows: Modern Comfort, Total Peace of Mind. Rarely does a home hit the market with every major detail already perfected. This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers more than just a place to live--it offers the luxury of a fresh start. With a brand-new roof in 2024, and a high-efficiency heating and cooling system in 2025, and a sleek new dishwasher and refrigerator. The ''big things'' are done, leaving you free to simply enjoy the lifestyle. Nestled within the sought-after Pine Shadows 55+ community, you're just steps away from world-class amenities and a calendar full of activities. Effortless, elegant, and priced to be your next great move.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Leasehold property; Directions available for location
• HOA & community: Land lease: $820 monthly; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community amenities: pool, community spa (heated), golf, pickleball courts, fitness center, biking/walking paths, transportation services

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Cement siding; Steel frame; Wood frame; Composition roof; Home warranty included; Building area per builder
• Exterior features: Heated spa; Shed(s); East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry / walk-in pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Accessible hallways; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Inside laundry
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.43%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2050 W State Route 89a -- #181	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,216 (-3%)	0mo	$120,000	$99	88
2050 W State Route 89a -- #86	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$35,000	$26	80
2050 W State Route 89-a -- #92	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$145,000	$108	79
2050 W State Route 89a -- #152	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	0mo	$205,000	$153	76
511 Mingus Shadows Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,325 (+6%)	3mo	$262,500	$198	71
2050 W State Route 89a -- #158	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,334 (+7%)	5mo	$130,000	$97	67
2050 State Route 89a -- #377	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-13%)	1mo	$109,000	$100	66
2050 W State Route 89a Hwy #51	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-13%)	4mo	$125,000	$115	63
972 Trevino Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,382 (+11%)	2mo	$179,900	$130	58
880 Calle Rosas --	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,324 (+6%)	0mo	$279,999	$211	52
992 Trevino Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (+15%)	3mo	$195,000	$136	51
1139 W On The Greens Blvd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+12%)	8mo	$245,000	$175	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,084
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $54,891
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86326

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1910 W Trail Blazer Dr Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,900	$2.27	13d	1	1.05mi
844 Tiablanca Rd Clarkdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,995	$1.50	13d	1	1.13mi
905 N 2nd St Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	1.0	752	$1,305	$1.74	21d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-05-25
    status Active
18. 2026-05-20
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-23
    price $130,000
20. 2026-02-12
    price $143,000
21. 2026-01-06
    price $148,000
22. 2025-12-13
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $7,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487)
• NCES district ID: 0402370
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,740
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8822
• State rank: #174 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 24,852
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 24,852
• Household income: $57,378
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.27%
• Current HPI: 347.5058
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.22%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $143,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $148,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $149,000 ARMLS