5235 Palo Verde Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $177/sqft · 36% below area Est $504k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two-story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-990 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (44.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,755 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.43%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,253
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -35.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13211 Padre Bay Ln	1.03mi	3/2.5	1,859 (+1%)	0mo	$304,580	$164	63
2907 Wind Cave Ln	1.00mi	3/2.5	1,859 (+1%)	1mo	$279,990	$151	62
2500 County Road 62	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,014 (+10%)	2mo	$685,000	$340	60
13306 Prado Ridge Ln	1.09mi	3/3.0	1,784 (-3%)	4mo	$339,482	$190	54
13211 Hayden Peak Dr	1.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,897 (+3%)	2mo	$299,990	$158	51
13310 Padre Bay Ln	1.10mi	3/2.5	1,688 (-8%)	2mo	$297,825	$176	50
2919 Copper Falls Dr	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,689 (-8%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	48
13219 Hayden Peak Dr	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-11%)	4mo	$318,200	$194	42
13207 Hayden Peak Dr	1.02mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-11%)	4mo	$317,205	$193	41
13215 Padre Bay Ln	1.04mi	3/2.5	1,592 (-13%)	4mo	$284,990	$179	39
12915 Green Valley Dr	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	4mo	$325,000	$203	38
13219 Padre Bay Ln	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-20%)	2mo	$299,990	$203	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-120,768
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.26×
• Total profit: $-206,008
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $322,495 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +48.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-990

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,383

Max offer price $181,755

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-765	-5% $-878	+0% $-990	+5% $-1,102	+10% $-1,215
Rent	-10% $-1,158	-5% $-1,074	+0% $-990	+5% $-906	+10% $-822
Rate	-1.0pp $-826	-0.5pp $-907	base $-990	+0.5pp $-1,074	+1.0pp $-1,160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-05-15
   listed $325,000 Active 70-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$6,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$17,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 26 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern kitchen, two full bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades such as painting and landscaping would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts potential buyers. ↑
• Both Installing a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B