1604 Annabellas Way · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$229,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,545 sqft · Townhouse public records · 115 Days on market

Built 2006 $148/sqft · 9% below area Est $253k · 9% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home in the Annabellas community! This two-story townhome offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a host of desirable features and amenities. Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car garage and modern appliances, including a stove/oven, refrigerator, and dishwasher. Laundry is made easy with washer and dryer hookups. Key Features: - Spacious Living: A large walk-in closet in the master bedroom, a breakfast bar, and a pantry enhance the living space. - Community Amenities: Residents have exclusive access to a gated community pool, clubhouse, and gym, offering the perfect blend of leisure and luxury. - Location Perks: Situated in a gated community, this townhome offers both privacy and security, along with easy access to local shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful townhome in Annabellas your new residence.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Gated community pool
• Clubhouse

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PANTRY
• GATED COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $229k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,969
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -9.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1702 Annabellas Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,532 (-1%)	3mo	$242,000	$158	92
1808 Annabellas Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,509 (-2%)	3mo	$250,000	$166	83
1846 Annabellas Dr	0.12mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-9%)	2mo	$195,000	$139	71
8107 Annabellas Ct	0.16mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-9%)	2mo	$184,000	$131	69
8102 Annabella's Ct	0.14mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-9%)	3mo	$185,000	$132	69
7647 Lumen Ln #11	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,695 (+10%)	1mo	$297,500	$176	56
7659 Lumen Ln #5	0.56mi	3/3.0	1,695 (+10%)	4mo	$305,000	$180	54
7655 Lumen Ln #7	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+10%)	2mo	$299,900	$177	50
7665 Lumen Ln #2	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+10%)	4mo	$299,900	$177	49
7663 Lumen Ln #3	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+10%)	4mo	$295,000	$174	49
7657 Lumen Ln #6	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+10%)	4mo	$299,900	$177	49
8700 Front Beach Rd Unit 5103	0.44mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,325 (-14%)	1mo	$275,000	$208	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,322
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-42,305
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,847/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,941

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $206	+0% $141	+5% $76	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $58	+0% $141	+5% $225	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $200	base $141	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	22d	1	0.13mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	22d	1	0.14mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	14d	1	0.16mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	14d	12	0.20mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	14d	2	0.40mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	14d	1	0.43mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	22d	1	0.47mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	14d	18	0.51mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	14d	41	0.54mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	22d	1	0.55mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	22d	1	0.57mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	14d	1	0.58mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	14d	6	0.81mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	22d	1	0.96mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	22d	1	1.30mi
410 Foxtail Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,750	$1.64	22d	1	1.43mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 93 DOM
19. 2026-04-30
    price $229,000 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    Welcome to your new home in the Annabellas community! This two-story townhome offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a host of desirable features and amenities. Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car garage and modern appliances, including a stove/oven, refrigerator, and dishwasher. Laundry is made easy with washer and dryer hookups. Key Features: - Spacious Living: A large walk-in closet in the master bedroom, a breakfast bar, and a pantry enhance the living space. - Community Amenities: Residents have exclusive access to a gated community pool, clubhouse, and gym, offering the perfect blend of leisure and luxury. - Location Perks: Situated in a gated community, this townhome offers both privacy and security, along with easy access to local shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful townhome in Annabellas your new residence.

20. 2026-04-03
    price $234,000 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    Welcome to your new home in the Annabellas community! This two-story townhome offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a host of desirable features and amenities. Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car garage and modern appliances, including a stove/oven, refrigerator, and dishwasher. Laundry is made easy with washer and dryer hookups. Key Features: - Spacious Living: A large walk-in closet in the master bedroom, a breakfast bar, and a pantry enhance the living space. - Community Amenities: Residents have exclusive access to a gated community pool, clubhouse, and gym, offering the perfect blend of leisure and luxury. - Location Perks: Situated in a gated community, this townhome offers both privacy and security, along with easy access to local shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful townhome in Annabellas your new residence.

21. 2026-02-25
    listed $239,000 Active 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    Welcome to your new home in the Annabellas community! This two-story townhome offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a host of desirable features and amenities. Enjoy the convenience of a 1-car garage and modern appliances, including a stove/oven, refrigerator, and dishwasher. Laundry is made easy with washer and dryer hookups. Key Features: - Spacious Living: A large walk-in closet in the master bedroom, a breakfast bar, and a pantry enhance the living space. - Community Amenities: Residents have exclusive access to a gated community pool, clubhouse, and gym, offering the perfect blend of leisure and luxury. - Location Perks: Situated in a gated community, this townhome offers both privacy and security, along with easy access to local shopping, dining, and entertainment options. Don't miss the opportunity to make this beautiful townhome in Annabellas your new residence.

22. 2021-12-14
    historical
23. 2021-12-09
    historical
24. 2010-04-13
    soldstatus $110,500
25. 2010-02-18
    listed $110,500
26. 2009-08-09
    listed $120,000
27. 2009-02-21
    listed $125,000
28. 2006-03-06
    soldstatus $243,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,847 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,847 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,847
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$507
• After-tax cash flow: $2,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $229,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $234,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $239,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2010-04-13 Sold (MLS) $110,500 CPARMLS
• 2010-02-18 Listed $110,500 CPARMLS
• 2009-08-09 Listed $120,000 CPARMLS
• 2009-02-21 Listed $125,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $243,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,847 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.