9426 Schoener Rd · Grand Bay, AL 36541

$145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 237 sqft · Other public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2010 1.84 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of comfort, space, and opportunity with this 2010 Waverlee Home with 4-bedroom, 2-baths. This manufactured home is situated on 1.84 beautiful acres in the heart of Grand Bay. Ideally located just a few short minutes from I-10, this property offers quick access to both Coastal Alabama and Mississippi, perfect for commuters or anyone working along the Gulf Coast. The home sits on it's own 0.92 acre parcel, while the second 0.92 acre lot is already equipped with a storm shelter and septic system, creating a unique opportunity for expansion. Whether you’re looking for an investment property, a place for a second home, or the perfect setup to keep family close, t

Key facts

• Storm shelter
• 1.84 beautiful acres
• Septic system

Tags

• 1.84 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• STORM SHELTER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.5% in Grand Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#103 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cora Castlen Elementary (math 33% / reading 63%, grade D, #135 of 627 statewide, top 22%, 439 students, 64% FRL); Alma Bryant High School (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #184 of 305 statewide, top 61%, 1,617 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.40%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,301
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $22,963
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36541

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12180 Franklin Creek Ct Grand Bay, AL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,500	$1.12	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $3,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Grand Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #11625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,353
• Population (ZIP): 16,353

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 208.4722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-22 Listed $145,000 GCMLS AL