816 Woodbridge Cir · Dilworth, MN 56529

$253,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2005 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious twin home, huge corner lot in the beautiful Woodbridge addition. 3 large bedrooms, master has a huge walk in closet, hollywood bath and a window seat. Kitchen/livingroom has an open concept. Large deck, fenced yard, lower level access to the oversize double garage. Sale subject to owners purchase

Key facts

• Large wood deck
• Fully fenced yard
• Numerous updates

Tags

• LARGE WOOD DECK
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CORNER LOT
• NUMEROUS UPDATES
• NEW UPSTAIRS FLOORING
• NEW DOWNSTAIRS CARPET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Concrete surfaces and shared driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 200+ amp electric service; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Three-level split layout; Entry on main level
• Construction: Frame and concrete construction; Asphalt roof; Poured concrete foundation; Built with other concrete elements
• Exterior features: Deck; Stone and vinyl exterior; Chain link fencing; Corner lot with light tree coverage; City street frontage, public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (bedrooms on upper and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one upper, one lower) — includes Hollywood bath configuration
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Daylight/lookout basement windows; Kitchen/dining open layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on lower level; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $253k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Dilworth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Moorhead Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 269 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $253,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,269
• Equity at exit: $37,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,984
• Equity at exit: $21,875

Cash invested: $70,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56529

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,752/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,209

Max offer price $253,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $381	+0% $309	+5% $238	+10% $166
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $206	+0% $309	+5% $412	+10% $515
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $374	base $309	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,250
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1521 Keystone Cir NE Dilworth, MN	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,600	$1.18	14d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $253,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $253,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $253,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $253,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $253,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $253,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 694-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $253,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,172
• − Property taxes: −$3,752
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable loss: −$341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$82
• After-tax cash flow: $3,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moorhead Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721420
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,009
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #4560
• State rank: #202 of 301 in MN

Livability — Dilworth

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #5975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dilworth, MN
• City population: 4,664
• Population (ZIP): 4,664

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,880 people
• By 2030: 70,881 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 76,865 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 83,205 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 98,719 · +45.4%
• By 2100: 111,657 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 29% Scottish 6% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Arabic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.2% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+8.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.98%
• Current HPI: 187.1235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+48.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $253,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 2018-07-10 Sold (MLS) $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-21 Listed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $167,900 Public Records
• 2016-04-01 Sold (MLS) $167,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-18 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,752 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.