9307 73rd St S · Cottage Grove, MN 55016

$269,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,313 sqft · Townhouse public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1984 3,049 sqft lot $280/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great End Town House w/newer brick patio. Lrg open grassy area & trees for privacy. Wood fireplace in living rm, ceramic tile on main floor bath. 2 car detached garage for storage.

Key facts

• $280 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1984

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Gassen Management; Monthly association fee of $280 covering hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, and professional management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal exterior; Lot approximately 0.07 acres (30 x 101)

Interior

• Kitchen: Center island; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on the upper level, one on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (upper level); 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Informal dining area; Center island in the kitchen; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer and dryer included/hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Cottage Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#132 in MN, #2,948 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $270k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $242,067 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,031
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-43,619
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55016

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,638/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$280
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,567

Max offer price $249,525

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6884 Jody Ave S Cottage Grove, MN	3.0	3.0	1696	$2,500	$1.47	18d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $280 · $3,360/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $269,900 Active
4. 2026-04-21
   historical $269,900
5. 2026-03-05
   soldstatus $170,000
6. 2009-08-24
   soldstatus $104,000 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great End Town House w/newer brick patio. Lrg open grassy area & trees for privacy. Wood fireplace in living rm, ceramic tile on main floor bath. 2 car detached garage for storage.

7. 2009-07-08
   historical 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great End Town House w/newer brick patio. Lrg open grassy area & trees for privacy. Wood fireplace in living rm, ceramic tile on main floor bath. 2 car detached garage for storage.

8. 2009-03-20
   listed $112,900 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Great End Town House w/newer brick patio. Lrg open grassy area & trees for privacy. Wood fireplace in living rm, ceramic tile on main floor bath. 2 car detached garage for storage.

9. 2007-05-22
   historical
10. 2007-03-24
    listed $159,900
11. 2004-07-07
    soldstatus $160,720
12. 2004-05-19
    soldstatus $164,000
13. 2004-05-04
    historical
14. 2004-04-30
    historical
15. 2004-04-30
    listed $164,900
16. 2004-03-22
    listed $164,900
17. 2000-05-31
    soldstatus $98,900
18. 1999-04-26
    soldstatus $90,500
19. 1999-04-12
    soldstatus $90,500
20. 1990-08-27
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,638 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,830 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$192/yr (+$16/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,638
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − HOA: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $36/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #2948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottage Grove, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 40,695
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,695
• Household income: $120,715
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.55%
• Current HPI: 241.1084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+429.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Coming Soon $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-24 Sold (MLS) $104,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-20 Listed $112,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-24 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $160,720 Public Records
• 2004-05-19 Sold (MLS) $164,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-30 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-22 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $98,900 Public Records
• 1999-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 1999-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 1990-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,638 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.