115 Valerie Ln · Knollwood, TX 75092

$24,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1997 ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable updated single-wide mobile home located in a community setting. This home features new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and an open living and kitchen area that creates a comfortable and functional layout. The kitchen offers laminate countertops and ample cabinet space, while the dedicated laundry area includes built-in cabinets for additional storage. The updated bathroom, along with recent electrical and plumbing updates and a new hot water heater, provide added peace of mind. The primary bedroom features a large closet, offering plenty of storage space. Enjoy relaxing on the screened-in front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening breezes. A separa

Key facts

• Updated mobile home
• New flooring
• Open living area

Tags

• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• BUILT-IN CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District: No
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage; Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: No association (none); Community pool; Park

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Concrete parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Curbs
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); One level; Zero-lot configuration; Located in Knollwood MHP subdivision
• Construction: Built in 1997; Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Full-size washer/dryer area; Laundry in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,276 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Percy W Neblett El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 559 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 61.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 195.80%
• DSCR: 9.71
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.13×
• Total profit: $63,633
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.68×
• Total profit: $130,208
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75092

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 636
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $196/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $1,138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $199

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4901 Knollwood Dr Knollwood, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,665	$2.00	21d	5	0.21mi
73 Cannon Ln Knollwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,300	$1.16	44d	1	0.23mi
601 Graham Dr Sherman, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1119	$2,526	$2.26	21d	68	0.29mi
5111 N Travis St Sherman, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,075	$1.25	21d	18	0.29mi
211 E Canyon Grove Rd Knollwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,650	$1.73	21d	10	0.70mi
1111 Gallagher Dr Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,714	$1.63	21d	26	0.98mi
1600 La Salle Dr Sherman, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	687	$1,014	$1.47	21d	15	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $24,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $24,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $24,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    price $24,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,900 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $29,900 Active 1256-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $196 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 132.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$196
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $14,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,380
• After-tax cash flow: $10,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840080
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,587
• Composite: 28.79/100
• National rank: #6665
• State rank: #546 of 826 in TX

Livability — Knollwood

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1276
• US rank: #22189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knollwood, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,342
• Household income: $68,036
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1278.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.47%
• Current HPI: 235.984
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.36%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $24,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $29,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

-25.8%/yr

Latest (2010): $196 · -25.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.