3038 Holland Lakes Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 101 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE MAY 2026. The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,017.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-563 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1601 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,017
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -23.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31218 Bentley Pines Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$279,990	$182	99
3030 Holland Lakes Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$279,990	$182	99
3006 Holland Lakes Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+4%)	0mo	$279,990	$176	65
31210 Harp Ridge Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+4%)	1mo	$284,990	$179	65
3054 Holland Lakes Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+1%)	1mo	$279,990	$181	65
31422 Harp Ridge Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+4%)	1mo	$284,990	$179	65
2926 Sloat Hill Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-2%)	0mo	$270,000	$179	64
3322 Zephyr Park Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+9%)	1mo	$279,500	$167	62
29614 Breakwater Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,709 (+11%)	0mo	$269,000	$157	52
31214 Harp Ridge Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (+12%)	0mo	$299,990	$175	42
31314 Bentley Pines Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (+12%)	0mo	$299,990	$175	42
31223 Carmelas Lndg	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (+12%)	1mo	$299,990	$175	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-100,303
• Equity at exit: $52,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-161,524
• Equity at exit: $30,522

Cash invested: $98,845 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.7 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $348,990 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1601
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,851
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$441 /mo · $5,295/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,225

Max offer price $271,590

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-319	-5% $-441	+0% $-563	+5% $-685	+10% $-807
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-662	+0% $-563	+5% $-463	+10% $-364
Rate	-1.0pp $-385	-0.5pp $-473	base $-563	+0.5pp $-654	+1.0pp $-747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,254
• Closing costs: $10,590
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31306 Bentley Pines DR Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,250	$1.27	2d	1	0.55mi
3640 Texas Heritage Pkwy Unit 230 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,829	$1.70	0d	1	0.70mi
3615 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,404	$2.34	0d	38	0.71mi
3003 Veeder Pass Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,206	$1.20	0d	1	0.83mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,192	$1.28	0d	13	0.91mi
29655 Jordan Crossing Blvd Brookshire, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,426	$2.32	0d	47	0.94mi
29202 Jarvis Bay Pass Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1563	$2,200	$1.41	54d	1	1.07mi
29914 Reagans Ranch Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$4,850	$2.33	4d	1	1.09mi
29914 Reagans Ranch Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$5,500	$2.64	38d	1	1.09mi
4050 Andreas Meadow Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2197	$2,495	$1.14	32d	1	1.23mi
2036 Texas Heritage Pkwy Unit 230 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,861	$1.67	0d	1	1.23mi
2011 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,416	$2.68	0d	38	1.27mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	93d	1	1.37mi
3711 Daintree Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,101	$1.11	69d	1	1.38mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,132	$1.27	1d	15	1.42mi
3407 Tamarron Trce Unit BATN Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,705	$1.62	73d	1	1.44mi
9863 Willowmoor Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	2070	$2,550	$1.23	73d	1	1.45mi
3000 Tamarron Trce Unit AATF1 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,885	$1.79	52d	1	1.50mi
3000 Tamarron Trce Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,885	$1.79	93d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Full ownership
• Construction: Brick, stone, and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenENERGY STAR qualified appliancesGranite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) 13 x 16Bedroom (first level) 10 x 10Bedroom (first level) 10 x 10Total of 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyerGranite countersProgrammable thermostatPrewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-07-26
   days on market $269,990 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-07-24
   days on market $269,990 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   days on market $269,990 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-07-22
   pricedays on market $269,990 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-07-21
   days on market $264,990 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-07-20
   statusdays on market $264,990 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 93 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 92 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 91 DOM
10. 2026-07-15
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 90 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 87 DOM
14. 2026-07-11
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 86 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 84 DOM
17. 2026-07-07
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 82 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 81 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 80 DOM
20. 2026-07-05
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 79 DOM
21. 2026-07-03
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 78 DOM
22. 2026-07-02
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 77 DOM
23. 2026-07-01
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 76 DOM
24. 2026-06-30
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 75 DOM
25. 2026-06-29
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 74 DOM
26. 2026-06-28
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
27. 2026-06-27
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
28. 2026-06-26
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
29. 2026-06-24
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
30. 2026-06-22
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
31. 2026-06-21
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 66 DOM
32. 2026-06-18
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
33. 2026-06-17
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
34. 2026-06-16
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
35. 2026-06-15
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
36. 2026-06-13
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 58 DOM
37. 2026-06-10
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
38. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
39. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
40. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
41. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
42. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
43. 2026-06-02
    status $264,990 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
44. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 46 DOM
45. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 45 DOM
46. 2026-04-29
    price $274,990 949-char remark
47. 2026-04-20
    price $279,990 949-char remark
48. 2026-04-16
    listed $317,990 Active 949-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,774
• − Property taxes: −$5,295
• − Insurance: −$1,765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$10,270
• Taxable loss: −$13,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,138
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — A smart lighting system can enhance energy efficiency and provide convenience to buyers/tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Fulshear H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Full ownership
• Construction: Brick, stone, and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenENERGY STAR qualified appliancesGranite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) 13 x 16Bedroom (first level) 10 x 10Bedroom (first level) 10 x 10Total of 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyerGranite countersProgrammable thermostatPrewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $317,990 HARMLS