416 Azalea Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2016 7,667 sqft lot Est $258k · at est. $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 1-story home with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms is ready for you to move in!! Spacious covered patio will provide a perfect space to relax outdoors. Inside, the kitchen opens to dining and living area. PLEASE SEE SHOWING INSTRUCTIONS. .. Plan 1566

Key facts

• Great size yard
• Patio
• 7,667 sq ft lot

Tags

• GREAT SIZE YARD
• PATIO
• FOUNTAIN VIEW COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing term: Exclusive right to sell; Possession at closing/funding or negotiable
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; Loan payments include principal, interest, taxes and insurance
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of $225 (includes management fees); HOA managed by Assured Management, Inc

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (approx. 22' wide x 21' long x 8' high); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Audio and video surveillance devices present
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Built in 2016; Not attached to other units
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Combination foundation
• Exterior features: Gutters; Private yard; Patio; Wood fencing; Few trees; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,193 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,742
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 Magnolia Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-4%)	2mo	$219,900	$144	81
406 Shady Bank Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+8%)	6mo	$319,235	$186	71
913 W Cook St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-4%)	7mo	$525,000	$344	64
104 Milton St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,604 (+1%)	7mo	$247,500	$154	62
505 Jasmine Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+14%)	4mo	$275,000	$152	62
305 Pine Hollow Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	6mo	$249,900	$159	60
406 Gooseberry Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+4%)	8mo	$278,490	$168	60
506 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+13%)	1mo	$290,990	$162	54
406 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-12%)	0mo	$251,010	$179	52
407 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+13%)	2mo	$273,990	$152	52
409 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-12%)	3mo	$270,990	$193	48
800 Rustic Way	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+13%)	3mo	$275,000	$153	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $122,239
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $373,340
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,962/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,375

Max offer price $208,566

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-191	+0% $-263	+5% $-335	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-424	-5% $-344	+0% $-263	+5% $-182	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-198	base $-263	+0.5pp $-329	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.13mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.49mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.49mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.51mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	0.58mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	0.69mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	0.74mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.75mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.75mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.75mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	4d	1	0.81mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	7d	1	0.82mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.83mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.83mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.93mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	0.94mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	0.97mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	0.99mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	26d	1	1.17mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	45d	1	1.17mi
503 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,795	$1.39	4d	1	1.18mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	1.19mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	1.20mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	45d	1	1.27mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.27mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	1.30mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	1.30mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   status $255,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 362-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $255,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,962 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,962 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,962
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2017-01-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-01-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-12-19 Price Changed $176,075 NTREIS
• 2016-12-14 Listed $174,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,962 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.