1907 Central Ave · West Belmar, NJ 07719

$399,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1940 7,405 sqft lot Est $481k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming Soon - cannot be shown until 6//6. OPPORTUNITY AWAITS! Situated on a desirable lot in a prime location close to beaches, shopping, schools, and major roadways, this property is being offered as a complete renovation project or tear-down with exceptional potential. Whether you are a builder, investor or buyer looking to create their dream home, this property provides the rare chance to capitalize on one of West Belmar's sought after locations. Existing structure requires substantial rehabilitation and is being sold strictly as-is. Bring your vision and imagination to unlock the full potential of this property.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-521/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#180 in NJ, #4,812 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: West Belmar Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #528 of 1,303 statewide, top 43%, 165 students, 34% FRL); Wall Intermediate School (math 33% / reading 58%, grade D+, #143 of 431 statewide, top 34%, 763 students, 9% FRL); Wall High School (math 32% / reading 61%, grade D-, #129 of 399 statewide, top 33%, 936 students, 10% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $333,250 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $481,152
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1820 Route 35 #30	0.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	689 (-4%)	18mo	$100,000	$145	56
1600 W Pine Tree Way	0.58mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (+4%)	13mo	$500,000	$672	50
1820 Route 35 Unit 46	0.39mi	2/1.0	616 (-14%)	12mo	$90,000	$146	48
1238 Maplewood Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0	663 (-7%)	13mo	$521,000	$786	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-49,958
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $33,079
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07719

• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,948/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,387

Max offer price $392,230

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $70	+0% $-43	+5% $-157	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-175	+0% $-43	+5% $88	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $58	base $-43	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2412 New Jersey 71 Spring Lake, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	711	$2,725	$3.83	0d	1	0.39mi
1008 17th Ave Wall Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	720	$7,500	$10.42	4d	1	0.44mi
323 14th Ave Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	624	$9,000	$14.42	17d	1	1.14mi
200 15th Ave Belmar, NJ	1.0	1.0	616	$8,500	$13.80	21d	1	1.27mi
103 17th Ave Belmar, NJ	1.0	1.0	500	$2,600	$5.20	9d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $399,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $399,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 625-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $399,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,948 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,453 · $621/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,505/yr (+$209/mo · 50.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$4,948
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,199
• − Management: −$3,199
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$7,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $1,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wall Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416890
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $92,842
• Composite: 44.31/100
• National rank: #2831
• State rank: #145 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Belmar

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #4812

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Belmar, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,138
• Household income: $119,828
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 513.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -537.99%
• Current HPI: 379.3961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.08%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $399,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,948 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.