Austin Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$403,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,316 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Austin home plan offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality, ideal for modern living. The well-appointed kitchen serves as the heart of the home, effortlessly connecting the dining area and spacious living room, making it perfect for entertaining. Upon entering, you're greeted by a versatile flex space, ideal for a home office or study. The first-floor primary suite provides a tranquil retreat, complete with an ensuite bath and a generous walk-in closet. Upstairs, a cozy loft, three additional bedrooms, and a secondary bath create ample space for family and guests. Outside, an oversized covered patio invites you to enjoy outdoor living at its finest.

Key facts

• Flex space
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 238 days

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• FLEX SPACE
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $403,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $431,210.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $403k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,990 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,210
• List price: $403,000
• Delta: -6.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14822 Mission Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (-10%)	1mo	$445,953	$215	73
14946 Buffalo Head St	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-11%)	1mo	$440,000	$214	70
15027 Mission Ave	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-11%)	5mo	$463,000	$226	66
15202 Lakewood Ave	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,430 (+5%)	2mo	$440,000	$181	66
7111 Hillside Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,216 (-4%)	6mo	$389,000	$176	62
15023 Gulfstream Park Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,047 (-12%)	5mo	$400,000	$195	56
15014 Lake Shore Ave	0.43mi	4/4.0	2,569 (+11%)	2mo	$399,000	$155	54
9607 Mystic Way	0.34mi	4/3.5	2,660 (+15%)	5mo	$480,000	$180	51
15322 Lake Front Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,065 (-11%)	1mo	$410,000	$199	48
9723 Suffolk Downs Dr	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,586 (+12%)	2mo	$485,000	$188	42
7406 Oakmont Ave	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,663 (+15%)	4mo	$465,000	$175	42
9626 Oaklawn Dr	0.65mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,586 (+12%)	2mo	$400,000	$155	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-102,337
• Equity at exit: $64,295

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-127,033
• Equity at exit: $37,283

Cash invested: $120,739 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $442,495 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,261
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$539 /mo · $6,468/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,772

Max offer price $354,363

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-382	+0% $-531	+5% $-680	+10% $-829
Rent	-10% $-776	-5% $-654	+0% $-531	+5% $-409	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-421	base $-531	+0.5pp $-643	+1.0pp $-756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,802
• Closing costs: $12,936
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	165d	1	0.09mi
14915 Lake Shore Ave Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	4.0	2569	$2,321	$0.90	85d	1	0.37mi
7307 Hillside Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,756	$1.20	112d	1	0.52mi
15122 Arlington Park Ave Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	3.5	2841	$2,676	$0.94	45d	1	0.55mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	115d	1	0.66mi
15334 Lake Front Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	2.0	2047	$3,000	$1.47	37d	1	0.74mi
15551 Blue Lake Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	3.0	2731	$3,000	$1.10	72d	1	1.02mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	99d	1	1.46mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	83d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $403,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $403,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $403,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $403,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $403,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $403,000 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $403,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $403,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $403,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $403,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $403,000 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $403,000 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $403,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $403,000 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $403,000 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    price $403,000 Active 223 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $402,500 Active 223 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $402,500 Active 222 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $402,500 Active 221 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $402,500 Active 220 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $402,500 Active 219 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $402,500 Active 218 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $402,500 Active 217 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $402,500 Active 216 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $402,500 Active 215 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $402,500 Active 214 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $402,500 Active 213 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $402,500 Active 212 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $402,500 Active 211 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $402,500 Active 210 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $402,500 Active 209 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $402,500 Active 208 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $402,500 Active 207 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $402,500 Active 206 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $402,500 Active 205 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $402,500 Active 204 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $402,500 Active 203 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $402,500 Active 202 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $402,500 Active 201 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $402,500 Active 200 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $402,500 Active 199 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $402,500 Active 198 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $402,500 Active 197 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $402,500 Active 196 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $402,500 Active 195 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $402,500 Active 194 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $402,500 Active 193 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $402,500 Active 192 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $402,500 Active 191 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $402,500 Active 190 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,154
• − Property taxes: −$6,468
• − Insurance: −$2,156
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$12,544
• Taxable loss: −$14,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,378
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,580–$34,740 screening

The home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of comfort and functionality, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can improve convenience and attract buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — Smart thermostats can reduce energy costs and attract tech-savvy renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $400,250 Zillow