1512 Seabrook School Rd · Vander, NC 28312

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1990 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Experience the best of country living without the commute! This charming ranch-style home is situated on almost an acre lot, just 7 minutes from I-95, offering a peaceful retreat that’s still connected. Inside, the home boasts a family room, kitchen and dining room, 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Laundry Room, Step outside to your private oasis: a deck overlooking a sprawling yard, perfect for summer BBQs or morning coffee in the shade. Cash or Conventional. Seller is offering $10,000 in concessions to Buyer.

Key facts

• Private oasis
• Almost an acre lot
• 0.92 acre lot

Tags

• ALMOST AN ACRE LOT
• PRIVATE OASIS
• DECK OVERLOOKING YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, 1 garage space)
• Utilities: Water from spring and well; Sewer: holding tank and septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan(s) and electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Factory-built fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.9% in Vander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#645 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $159k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.09%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $112,777
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $311,460
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,429/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $456	+0% $411	+5% $366	+10% $321
Rent	-10% $268	-5% $340	+0% $411	+5% $483	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $452	base $411	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $159,000
3. 2026-03-17
   price $169,900
4. 2026-03-04
   listed $178,000 Active
5. 2001-09-26
   soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,429
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,497
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$599
• After-tax cash flow: $4,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Vander

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #23450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+249.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $159,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $169,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $178,000 LPRMLS
• 2001-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,429 · +81.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.