131 Burrill Dr · Denton, MI 48651

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1950 0.42 ac lot Est $200k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable 3-bed, 1.5-bath ranch just two blocks from beautiful Houghton Lake! This cozy home features an inviting open floor plan with warm knotty pine throughout the living rm and 1 bedroom and a natural fieldstone fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings. Recent updates include a brand-new roof and new kitchen flooring, adding peace of mind and modern touches. The home also offers a partial basement, providing extra storage and laundry facilities. Step outside to enjoy a spacious yard--ideal for kids, pets, or entertaining. The oversized detached garage includes a dedicated workshop area, perfect for hobbies, tools, or outdoor gear. Whether you're looking for a starter home,

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open floor plan
• Partial basement

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL FIELDSTONE FIREPLACE
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• NEW KITCHEN FLOORING
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential zoning; Located in Houghton Beach Subdivision
• Construction: Has basement
• Exterior features: Workshop on property; Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.42 acres (150 x 112)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range; Garbage disposal; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s); Has cooling
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Blinds on windows; Fireplace; Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Houghton Lake Community Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #410 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Collins Elementary School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #918 of 1,397 statewide, top 66%, 555 students, 76% FRL); Houghton Lake Jrsr High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #462 of 713 statewide, top 66%, 511 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 57% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Roscommon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roscommon County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $170k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.45%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,340
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Beverly Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,258 (-0%)	13mo	$149,900	$119	76
117 Seneca Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+2%)	15mo	$238,500	$185	67
321 Devonshire Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+2%)	9mo	$249,900	$194	64
128 Cottage Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,072 (-15%)	21mo	$148,000	$138	56
204 Beverly Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,403 (+11%)	18mo	$110,000	$78	52
225 Kimberly Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	23mo	$260,000	$233	48
115 Sheridan Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (-14%)	20mo	$120,000	$111	47
105 Oakridge Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,130 (-10%)	10mo	$179,900	$159	46
225 Kimberly Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	23mo	$260,000	$233	45
319 Stratford Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-14%)	23mo	$179,500	$165	43
415 Chippewa Trl	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,438 (+14%)	24mo	$212,000	$147	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,684
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $27,478
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48651

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,850/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $423	+0% $375	+5% $326	+10% $278
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $300	+0% $375	+5% $449	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $418	base $375	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $169,900
19. 2026-04-22
    listed $189,900 Active
20. 2016-02-17
    soldstatus $63,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,850 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$383/yr (+$32/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,850
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$446
• After-tax cash flow: $4,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houghton Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,744
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8158
• State rank: #410 of 540 in MI

Livability — Denton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houghton Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 4,331

Population outlook (Roscommon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,249 people
• By 2030: 21,206 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 19,070 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 17,564 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,420 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 13,168 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roscommon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.9) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.9 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.27%
• Current HPI: 252.9662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $169,900 WWMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $189,900 WWMLS
• 2016-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $63,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,850 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.