307 White Pond Rd · Lake Carmel, NY 12582

$525,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 1.94 ac lot $344/sqft · at area comps Est $542k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to this one-of-a-kind 3-bedroom, 3 full bathroom home set on 1.94 private acres. Designed with an open floor plan, the home offers a seamless flow ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. This versatile property features a potential mother/daughter layout, with two bedrooms on the main level and a third bedroom on the lower level. The lower level also includes a spacious family room, summer kitchen, full bathroom, and its own private entrance—perfect for extended living or guest accommodations. Recent updates include a furnace and hot water heater, both less than five years old. Hardwood floors run throughout the home, adding warmth and character. Additional highlights

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Recent updates
• Private entrance

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• SUMMER KITCHEN
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• RECENT UPDATES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Septic tank; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Brick and frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Finished full basement with walk-out access; Dormer attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $525k).
• Recommended offer: $517k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kent Elementary School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 394 students, 29% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 17% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $262k; list at $525k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $517,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.99%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $541,924
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -3.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $16,409
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $145,385
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12582

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$740 /mo · $8,875/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,410
• Net cashflow: $1,591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,698

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,888	-5% $1,740	+0% $1,591	+5% $1,442	+10% $1,294
Rent	-10% $1,061	-5% $1,326	+0% $1,591	+5% $1,856	+10% $2,121
Rate	-1.0pp $1,855	-0.5pp $1,724	base $1,591	+0.5pp $1,455	+1.0pp $1,317

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	3	$6,711
Total (3 units)			$6,712

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $525,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $525,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $525,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $525,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $525,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-04
   listed $525,000 Active 1299-char remark
7. 2024-02-03
   historical
8. 2024-02-03
   historical
9. 2019-10-30
   soldstatus $262,000
10. 2019-09-20
    soldstatus $262,000 Sold
11. 2019-08-13
    status Pending
12. 2019-06-24
    historical
13. 2019-06-24
    listed $275,000 Active
14. 2019-06-23
    price $275,000
15. 2019-05-31
    historical
16. 2019-05-31
    listed $290,000
17. 2019-05-31
    listed $290,000 Active
18. 2019-03-29
    listed $300,000
19. 2019-03-29
    listed $300,000 Active
20. 2017-01-05
    soldstatus $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,875 · $740/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,875 · $740/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$8,875
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,444
• − Management: −$6,444
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable income: $11,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,754
• After-tax cash flow: $16,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Carmel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,157

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 17% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.61%
• Current HPI: 223.0403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+138.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $262,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-20 Sold (MLS) $262,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-24 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-24 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-23 Price Changed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Listed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Listed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-29 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-29 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,875 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.