20806 Horseshoe Rd · Templeton, VA 23830

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2012 4.47 ac lot $177/sqft · 16% below area Est $388k · 16% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 20806 Horseshoe Road located in the town of Carson! Located near the more rural side of Prince George County, this 3 bedroom home is 1837 sq ft, with appliances that convey, a walk up front porch, large ramp access rear deck and located just under 4.5 acres gives you that rustic living feeling while still being within 10 minutes to gas stations, a restaurant, farmers market, Dollar General and access points to I-95, 295, 85 and 460. Walking inside the house from the front door you are greeted to a large living room area that blends into the full kitchen complete with island and dining area. The primary bedroom is not only spacious but has its own private bathroom and large walk in closet. The other bedrooms are a good size with lots of natural light. The house also features a large utility room along with small storage shed and pole barn outside. Please excuse our mess as the seller is moving but this house has lots of space, ton's of potential and really has to be seen to be appreciated. Also note that while this house and property is being sold "as-is" that it still able to qualify for most if not all loans. Want to see more? Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Walk up front porch
• Large walk in closet

Tags

• WALK UP FRONT PORCH
• LARGE RAMP ACCESS REAR DECK
• LARGE LIVING ROOM AREA
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-728 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (39.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (47.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#579 in VA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,090 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.60%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,684
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -16.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20806 Horseshoe Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,837 (0%)	0mo	$290,000	$158	95
20730 Horseshoe Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (-6%)	21mo	$415,000	$241	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,076
• Equity at exit: $161,414

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $72,954
• Equity at exit: $261,355

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23830

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,711 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $196,409

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-544	-5% $-636	+0% $-728	+5% $-820	+10% $-912
Rent	-10% $-863	-5% $-796	+0% $-728	+5% $-660	+10% $-593
Rate	-1.0pp $-564	-0.5pp $-645	base $-728	+0.5pp $-812	+1.0pp $-898

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 1195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1195 chars)

   Welcome to 20806 Horseshoe Road located in the town of Carson! Located near the more rural side of Prince George County, this 3 bedroom home is 1837 sq ft, with appliances that convey, a walk up front porch, large ramp access rear deck and located just under 4.5 acres gives you that rustic living feeling while still being within 10 minutes to gas stations, a restaurant, farmers market, Dollar General and access points to I-95, 295, 85 and 460. Walking inside the house from the front door you are greeted to a large living room area that blends into the full kitchen complete with island and dining area. The primary bedroom is not only spacious but has its own private bathroom and large walk in closet. The other bedrooms are a good size with lots of natural light. The house also features a large utility room along with small storage shed and pole barn outside. Please excuse our mess as the seller is moving but this house has lots of space, ton's of potential and really has to be seen to be appreciated. Also note that while this house and property is being sold "as-is" that it still able to qualify for most if not all loans. Want to see more? Schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-17
   price $325,000 1195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1195 chars)

   Welcome to 20806 Horseshoe Road located in the town of Carson! Located near the more rural side of Prince George County, this 3 bedroom home is 1837 sq ft, with appliances that convey, a walk up front porch, large ramp access rear deck and located just under 4.5 acres gives you that rustic living feeling while still being within 10 minutes to gas stations, a restaurant, farmers market, Dollar General and access points to I-95, 295, 85 and 460. Walking inside the house from the front door you are greeted to a large living room area that blends into the full kitchen complete with island and dining area. The primary bedroom is not only spacious but has its own private bathroom and large walk in closet. The other bedrooms are a good size with lots of natural light. The house also features a large utility room along with small storage shed and pole barn outside. Please excuse our mess as the seller is moving but this house has lots of space, ton's of potential and really has to be seen to be appreciated. Also note that while this house and property is being sold "as-is" that it still able to qualify for most if not all loans. Want to see more? Schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $350,000 Active 1195-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1195 chars)

   Welcome to 20806 Horseshoe Road located in the town of Carson! Located near the more rural side of Prince George County, this 3 bedroom home is 1837 sq ft, with appliances that convey, a walk up front porch, large ramp access rear deck and located just under 4.5 acres gives you that rustic living feeling while still being within 10 minutes to gas stations, a restaurant, farmers market, Dollar General and access points to I-95, 295, 85 and 460. Walking inside the house from the front door you are greeted to a large living room area that blends into the full kitchen complete with island and dining area. The primary bedroom is not only spacious but has its own private bathroom and large walk in closet. The other bedrooms are a good size with lots of natural light. The house also features a large utility room along with small storage shed and pole barn outside. Please excuse our mess as the seller is moving but this house has lots of space, ton's of potential and really has to be seen to be appreciated. Also note that while this house and property is being sold "as-is" that it still able to qualify for most if not all loans. Want to see more? Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$14,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103090
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,354
• Composite: 61.44/100
• National rank: #759
• State rank: #16 of 131 in VA

Livability — Templeton

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #579
• US rank: #27416

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,471

Population outlook (Prince George County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,946 people
• By 2030: 48,155 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 54,455 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 61,115 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 78,510 · +74.7%
• By 2100: 85,572 · +90.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 21% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.9% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+17.2 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 322.3073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $325,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $350,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,877 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.