115 Cambria St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$199,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1958 4,786 sqft lot Est $196k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMPLETE MAKE OVER 2011 - THIS WONDERFUL 3 BEDROOM CAPE IS WAITING FOR YOU TO CALL HOME - FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR - UPDATED BATHROOM - TOTAL TEAR OFF ROOF 2009 - 2 CAR GARAGE WITH UPDATED DOOR - UPDATED KITCHEN FLOORING & ELECTRICAL - MINUTES TO SHOPPING, THRUWAY, BUS ROUTE & MORE - HANDICAP RAMP WILL BE REMOVED BEFORE CLOSING IF DESIRED

Key facts

• New drywall
• Built in microwave
• Gas stove

Tags

• FULL BATH ON FIRST FLOOR
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS AND SINK
• BUILT IN MICROWAVE
• GAS STOVE
• REFRIGERATOR
• NEW DRYWALL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with automatic door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Blacktop driveway; Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork; Bedroom on main level; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $200k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,740 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 N Willowlawn Pkwy	0.19mi	3/1.0	948 (+11%)	2mo	$215,000	$227	71
126 Claude Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	897 (+5%)	10mo	$194,500	$217	67
214 Rossler Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	872 (+2%)	11mo	$194,000	$222	67
122 Claude Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	884 (+4%)	19mo	$200,550	$227	62
112 Medina St	0.48mi	3/1.0	897 (+5%)	8mo	$252,500	$281	62
140 Medina St	0.48mi	3/1.0	884 (+4%)	11mo	$203,500	$230	62
231 Rossler Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	801 (-6%)	13mo	$187,000	$233	59
56 Shanley St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-2%)	11mo	$205,000	$246	57
77 S Colby St	0.59mi	3/1.0	832 (-2%)	16mo	$185,000	$222	55
262 N Willowlawn Pkwy	0.18mi	3/2.0	948 (+11%)	18mo	$225,000	$237	54
55 Alaska St	0.59mi	3/1.0	884 (+4%)	17mo	$157,500	$178	52
424 Weimar St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-11%)	6mo	$175,000	$231	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $74,559
• Equity at exit: $152,740

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $222,437
• Equity at exit: $303,948

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $176,497

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-76	+0% $-133	+5% $-190	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-185	+0% $-133	+5% $-81	+10% $-28
Rate	-1.0pp $-32	-0.5pp $-82	base $-133	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	25d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $199,999 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $199,999 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $199,999 Active
16. 2025-10-14
    price $199,000
17. 2025-10-10
    listed $209,900 Active
18. 2011-02-22
    soldstatus $40,000 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    COMPLETE MAKE OVER 2011 - THIS WONDERFUL 3 BEDROOM CAPE IS WAITING FOR YOU TO CALL HOME - FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR - UPDATED BATHROOM - TOTAL TEAR OFF ROOF 2009 - 2 CAR GARAGE WITH UPDATED DOOR - UPDATED KITCHEN FLOORING & ELECTRICAL - MINUTES TO SHOPPING, THRUWAY, BUS ROUTE & MORE - HANDICAP RAMP WILL BE REMOVED BEFORE CLOSING IF DESIRED

19. 2011-02-14
    soldstatus $40,000
20. 2010-11-01
    listed $43,500 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    COMPLETE MAKE OVER 2011 - THIS WONDERFUL 3 BEDROOM CAPE IS WAITING FOR YOU TO CALL HOME - FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR - UPDATED BATHROOM - TOTAL TEAR OFF ROOF 2009 - 2 CAR GARAGE WITH UPDATED DOOR - UPDATED KITCHEN FLOORING & ELECTRICAL - MINUTES TO SHOPPING, THRUWAY, BUS ROUTE & MORE - HANDICAP RAMP WILL BE REMOVED BEFORE CLOSING IF DESIRED

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,393/yr (+$116/mo · 234.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $-340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+359.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $199,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $199,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $209,900 WNYREIS
• 2011-02-22 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WNYREIS
• 2011-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-01 Listed $43,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.