422 Harrison Hope Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$226,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Land · 126 Days on market

Built 2025 4,939 sqft lot $48/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aspen - With 1388 Square feet, the Aspen plan is a 3 bedroom/2 bath and offers ample space. 42" cabinets, stainless steel appliances, Whirlpool 5 burner gas range, microwave oven, and dishwasher are some of the features this home offers. Wait until you see the luxurious 5' tiled walk-in shower in the primary bedroom! With ceiling fans in the primary bedroom and great room, you'll stay cool and comfortable all year round. The tankless water heater, garage door opener, blinds, and keyless entry add extra convenience to your daily life. Call to schedule your private tour of this home.

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Microwave oven
• Dishwasher

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHIRLPOOL 5 BURNER GAS RANGE
• MICROWAVE OVEN
• DISHWASHER
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• CEILING FANS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($895/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $191,595 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,954
• Equity at exit: $33,832

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,014
• Equity at exit: $19,618

Cash invested: $63,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $226,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,725
• Closing costs: $6,807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   price $226,900
3. 2026-02-07
   price $224,900
4. 2025-12-29
   price $229,900
5. 2025-12-22
   listed $242,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,152 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,873/yr (+$239/mo · 224.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,710
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$1,134
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,601
• Taxable loss: −$2,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$717
• After-tax cash flow: $1,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $226,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $242,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.