609 Outrigger Ct · Topsail Beach, NC 28443

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1988 7,884 sqft lot Est $197k · at est. $185/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market, at no fault of seller. Set on a quiet cul-de-sac, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, style, and a welcoming community vibe. Inside, enjoy a spacious main living area that flows into an open dining room and kitchen. Just off the dining room is a bright sunroom perfect for morning coffee or afternoon reading, with a door out to a cozy back porch perfect for an herb garden or spending some time in the sun. If you are looking for a cooler way to enjoy the outdoors, there is a large, covered porch with a newly installed ceiling fan just off the living room. Enjoy natural sunlight from the multiple skylights and large windows throughout th

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Turn-key opportunity
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• FULLY FURNISHED
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• COVERED DECK
• TOPSAIL GREENS NEIGHBORHOOD
• TURN-KEY OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Topsail Greens; Paved road access; Zoning: PD
• HOA & community: HOA provides grounds maintenance, trash service, and water; HOA fee is $2,220 annually (about $185/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 off-street open parking spaces on concrete
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Cable available; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry level: 1; Has a view
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Enclosed porch; Porch; No additional exterior features listed; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Downdraft; Built-in electric oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Skylights; Window coverings; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.0% in Topsail Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#626 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Topsail Elementary (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A-, #105 of 1,410 statewide, top 8%, 608 students, 26% FRL); Surf City Middle (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #71 of 475 statewide, top 15%, 705 students, 23% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 47% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.61%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 Outrigger Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,417 (+1%)	6mo	$220,000	$155	86
719 Nautical Ct	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-0%)	1mo	$195,000	$139	84
107 Plank Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	8mo	$218,000	$144	76
214 Champion Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-2%)	14mo	$210,000	$152	71
614 Galley Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	11mo	$200,000	$132	69
108 Doral Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,368 (-3%)	2mo	$128,500	$94	67
610 Galley Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+12%)	9mo	$214,000	$136	63
506 Fathom Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	9mo	$224,900	$143	62
713 Nautical Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	14mo	$259,900	$166	60
813 Jetty Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (-7%)	16mo	$184,000	$140	60
608 Galley Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+12%)	17mo	$205,000	$131	56
210 Spar Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (+9%)	17mo	$200,000	$131	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-7
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $50,139
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28443

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$185
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Mullein Dr Hampstead, NC	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1542	$2,460	$1.60	13d	21	0.16mi
702 Azalea Dr Hampstead, NC	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,300	$1.07	20d	1	0.88mi
1874 Sloop Point Loop Rd Hampstead, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	13d	1	1.25mi
200 Susans Dr Hampstead, NC	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,700	$1.42	20d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $185 · $2,220/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $189,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active
17. 2026-04-20
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-11
    status Active
19. 2026-03-31
    status Pending
20. 2026-03-26
    status Active
21. 2026-03-26
    historical
22. 2026-02-23
    status Active
23. 2025-12-24
    status Pending
24. 2025-11-22
    price $189,000
25. 2025-10-21
    price $199,000
26. 2025-09-23
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$525/yr (+$44/mo · 51.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − HOA: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$536
• After-tax cash flow: $4,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pender County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,792
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3342
• State rank: #66 of 178 in NC

Livability — Topsail Beach

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #626
• US rank: #22791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pender County · 28,416 people
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,416
• Household income: $90,477
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Pender County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,295 people
• By 2030: 74,990 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 85,954 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 95,925 · +38.4%
• By 2075: 117,525 · +69.6%
• By 2100: 129,074 · +86.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pender

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.0) · D 32.1% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.0 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+30.4 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.51%
• Current HPI: 188.426
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.57%
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-11 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2025-12-24 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $189,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $205,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +67.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.