1409 Lorene Ln · Marlin, TX 76661

$175,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,791 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1978 0.30 ac lot Est $195k · 10% under ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this unique 4 bedroom, 3 bath home that is ready for you to enjoy. Seller has really done a lot of beautiful renovations including Hickory Hardwoods in the kitchen and living area. A new bedroom with an on-suite has a large, tiled walk-in shower. Also included is a spacious living area with laminate flooring that opens to the back yard. The other two guest bedrooms use the hall bathroom with a tiled tub shower combination. These bedrooms also have new carpet and two closets. The Primary Bedroom has an on-suite with walk-in Tiled shower and a vanity with marble counter. The floor is tiled and there is open storage for towels. The kitchen with breakfast area is a cook's paradise. S

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Tiled walk-in shower
• Marble counter

Tags

• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• MARBLE COUNTER
• STAINLESS STEEL TOP
• GAS COOK TOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a Municipal Utility District; Utility easement noted
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, VA Loan; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 21' x 21'); 2 covered parking spaces; Concrete driveway; On-street parking available
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Satellite dish
• Utilities: City water; City sewer / MUD sewer; Electricity connected (overhead utilities); Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Cable available; All-weather road access; Asphalt access
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Preowned (built 1978); No accessory unit; No planned development; Faces: not specified
• Construction: Metal roof; Stone veneer exterior; Slab foundation; Year built 1978
• Exterior features: Gutters; Exterior lighting; Uncovered courtyard; Back yard fencing (wood, full); Cleared, landscaped, level lot with few trees and oak; Interior lot; Other structures: garage(s), outbuilding, storage, workshop with electric; Easements for electric, natural gas, utilities and water lines

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in refrigerator; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Ice maker; Trash compactor; Vented exhaust fan; Dual sinks; Granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Water line to refrigerator; Eat-in breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, separate shower and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and natural gas); Fireplace(s) provide additional heat; Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Bay windows; Window coverings; 1 living area; 2 dining areas; Room count: 4; Fireplace in living room (wood burning/gas)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer/dryer hookups in utility room/in kitchen; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Marlin Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 201 students, 100% FRL); Marlin High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,612 of 1,632 statewide, top 99%, 243 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,914 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,219
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
910 Saint Charles Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (+0%)	6mo	$195,000	$109	83
100 Fm 2117	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,933 (+8%)	1mo	$215,000	$111	54
1404 Rock Dam Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (-11%)	10mo	$95,400	$60	53
818 Rock Dam Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (+3%)	7mo	$55,000	$30	48
446 Norwood St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (+2%)	8mo	$175,000	$96	48
704 Old Belton Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-13%)	12mo	$199,900	$128	46
420 Sunset Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-8%)	23mo	$227,000	$137	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $22,473
• Equity at exit: $90,477

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $80,826
• Equity at exit: $149,395

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,786/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $147,898

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-104	+0% $-153	+5% $-203	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-211	+0% $-153	+5% $-96	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-109	base $-153	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $175,000
3. 2026-04-29
   status Active
4. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-06
   listed $285,000 Active
6. 2025-09-28
   historical
7. 2025-03-28
   listed $345,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,786 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,786 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,786
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-49.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $345,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,786 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.