15827 Wilderness Trl #25 · Crosslake, MN 56442

$179,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 585 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition $158/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is your chance to be on the Whitefish Chain in the most well taken care of park model you’ll ever see. Unit 25 is located in the 2nd row giving you lake views and close access to the heated underground pool overlooking Little Pine Lake. Home comes fully furnished including an EZ-GO golf cart for strolls around the park. Unit has 3 bedroom sleeping areas and currently sleeps 12 people. You’ll love the nice open floor plan with vaulted ceilings making home spacious and lots of natural light. Unit has central air, full bathroom, 2 outdoor canopies, large patio, maintenance free storage shed, 10x 30 garage, boat slip that owns half of the dock for easy access in and out, surround sound, built in desk, electric fireplace and updates throughout. Park has basketball court, volleyball court, tennis court, horseshoes, boat/car wash, fish cleaning house, playground, gathering room, coined laundry and beach area. This one won’t last long! Start enjoying your summer right and on the lake.

Key facts

• Oversized loft
• Swimming beach
• Private boat launch

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOFT
• BOAT SLIP
• PRIVATE BOAT LAUNCH
• HEATED IN GROUND POOL
• SWIMMING BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Shared community room and play area; Shared heated below-ground pool; Association provides boat slip and beach access (dock present); Road between home and waterfront; Approximately 2000 feet of shared waterfront with sand and weeds lake bottom
• HOA & community: Part of Wilderness Park association; Quarterly association fee (amount listed); Association amenities include beach, boat slip, dock, tennis courts, trails, community laundry, car wash, recreation facility, controlled access, and shared amenities; Association maintains roads

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Detached garage (1-car), 12 x 30 with 10' garage door
• Utilities: Drilled well and shared water system; Shared septic (compliant); Electric: other; Propane fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One and one half stories; Main living areas on one level; Entry faces a private road
• Construction: Shingle roof (age 8 years or less); Foundation area approximately 420, foundation dimensions 12 x 35; Above-grade finished area 585
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Awning(s) and patio; Light tree coverage; Private road with association maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Vaulted ceiling(s); All living facilities on one level; Main floor bedroom; Kitchen/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-131/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.4% in Crosslake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#628 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pequot Lakes Public Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #137 of 301 in MN (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle View Elementary (math 69% / reading 57%, grade B, #168 of 857 statewide, top 20%, 601 students, 39% FRL); Pequot Lakes Middle (math 30% / reading 57%, grade D, #128 of 258 statewide, top 49%, 576 students, 38% FRL); Pequot Lakes Senior High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #189 of 471 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 20% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-29,722
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-26,272
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56442

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$158
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $178,323

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $51	+0% $-11	+5% $-73	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-80	+0% $-11	+5% $59	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $35	base $-11	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $158 · $1,896/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $179,900 Active 1214-char remark
20. 2026-05-01
    historical
21. 2026-03-23
    price $179,900
22. 2025-09-09
    listed $189,900 Active
23. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $147,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    This is your chance to be on the Whitefish Chain in the most well taken care of park model you’ll ever see. Unit 25 is located in the 2nd row giving you lake views and close access to the heated underground pool overlooking Little Pine Lake. Home comes fully furnished including an EZ-GO golf cart for strolls around the park. Unit has 3 bedroom sleeping areas and currently sleeps 12 people. You’ll love the nice open floor plan with vaulted ceilings making home spacious and lots of natural light. Unit has central air, full bathroom, 2 outdoor canopies, large patio, maintenance free storage shed, 10x 30 garage, boat slip that owns half of the dock for easy access in and out, surround sound, built in desk, electric fireplace and updates throughout. Park has basketball court, volleyball court, tennis court, horseshoes, boat/car wash, fish cleaning house, playground, gathering room, coined laundry and beach area. This one won’t last long! Start enjoying your summer right and on the lake.

24. 2022-07-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    This is your chance to be on the Whitefish Chain in the most well taken care of park model you’ll ever see. Unit 25 is located in the 2nd row giving you lake views and close access to the heated underground pool overlooking Little Pine Lake. Home comes fully furnished including an EZ-GO golf cart for strolls around the park. Unit has 3 bedroom sleeping areas and currently sleeps 12 people. You’ll love the nice open floor plan with vaulted ceilings making home spacious and lots of natural light. Unit has central air, full bathroom, 2 outdoor canopies, large patio, maintenance free storage shed, 10x 30 garage, boat slip that owns half of the dock for easy access in and out, surround sound, built in desk, electric fireplace and updates throughout. Park has basketball court, volleyball court, tennis court, horseshoes, boat/car wash, fish cleaning house, playground, gathering room, coined laundry and beach area. This one won’t last long! Start enjoying your summer right and on the lake.

25. 2022-06-06
    listed $159,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    This is your chance to be on the Whitefish Chain in the most well taken care of park model you’ll ever see. Unit 25 is located in the 2nd row giving you lake views and close access to the heated underground pool overlooking Little Pine Lake. Home comes fully furnished including an EZ-GO golf cart for strolls around the park. Unit has 3 bedroom sleeping areas and currently sleeps 12 people. You’ll love the nice open floor plan with vaulted ceilings making home spacious and lots of natural light. Unit has central air, full bathroom, 2 outdoor canopies, large patio, maintenance free storage shed, 10x 30 garage, boat slip that owns half of the dock for easy access in and out, surround sound, built in desk, electric fireplace and updates throughout. Park has basketball court, volleyball court, tennis court, horseshoes, boat/car wash, fish cleaning house, playground, gathering room, coined laundry and beach area. This one won’t last long! Start enjoying your summer right and on the lake.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − HOA: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Wilderness Park offers a well-maintained and updated interior with a good condition score, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Resale upgrading appliances — modern appliances can attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale upgrading appliances — modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pequot Lakes Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2728200
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,513
• Composite: 41.62/100
• National rank: #3430
• State rank: #137 of 301 in MN

Livability — Crosslake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #15018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosslake, MN
• City population: 2,895
• Population (ZIP): 2,895

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.60%
• Current HPI: 218.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+12.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listed $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $147,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-06 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid