3210 Lake Shore Dr #39 · Lake George, NY 12845

$42,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Condo · 22 Days on market

Built 2005 $304/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Interval 7-Prime week Last of week of July/1st week of August! Lodge 39. Great lower level unit in this beautiful fractional ownership lakeside resort community. Owners have 3 deeded weeks (summer is fixed week) w/ Spring & Summer weeks rotational. 2 bedroom & 2 full baths. Washer & Dryer. Log style chalet. RCI optional to trade. Beach, pool, game room, gym, grills, rotational boat docks. Boathouse Restaurant on premises. 300 feet of beachfront. HOA INCLUDES: insurance, taxes, all furniture, all appliances, electric, water and other utilities. MAINTENANCE OF ALL BUILDINGS, BEACH, DOCKS, FITNESS CENTER, INDOOR OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL, LANDSCAPING,PARKING LOT, etc. For 2023 ONLY the summer week has been replaced by June 4-11th. Call agent for more info.

Key facts

• $304 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 49.1% vs local median 2.9% in Lake George — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $41,370 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 152.97%
• DSCR: 7.81
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.08×
• Total profit: $118,582
• Equity at exit: $37,837

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.35×
• Total profit: $274,570
• Equity at exit: $81,597

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12845

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$304
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $1,499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,528	-5% $1,514	+0% $1,499	+5% $1,485	+10% $1,470
Rent	-10% $1,290	-5% $1,394	+0% $1,499	+5% $1,604	+10% $1,708
Rate	-1.0pp $1,520	-0.5pp $1,510	base $1,499	+0.5pp $1,488	+1.0pp $1,477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $304 · $3,648/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscapingpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-08-31
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-09
   listed $42,000 Active
3. 2023-01-13
   soldstatus $34,500 Closed 773-char remark

   Show marketing remark (773 chars)

   Interval 7-Prime week Last of week of July/1st week of August! Lodge 39. Great lower level unit in this beautiful fractional ownership lakeside resort community. Owners have 3 deeded weeks (summer is fixed week) w/ Spring & Summer weeks rotational. 2 bedroom & 2 full baths. Washer & Dryer. Log style chalet. RCI optional to trade. Beach, pool, game room, gym, grills, rotational boat docks. Boathouse Restaurant on premises. 300 feet of beachfront. HOA INCLUDES: insurance, taxes, all furniture, all appliances, electric, water and other utilities. MAINTENANCE OF ALL BUILDINGS, BEACH, DOCKS, FITNESS CENTER, INDOOR OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL, LANDSCAPING,PARKING LOT, etc. For 2023 ONLY the summer week has been replaced by June 4-11th. Call agent for more info.

4. 2023-01-03
   status Pending 773-char remark

   Show marketing remark (773 chars)

   Interval 7-Prime week Last of week of July/1st week of August! Lodge 39. Great lower level unit in this beautiful fractional ownership lakeside resort community. Owners have 3 deeded weeks (summer is fixed week) w/ Spring & Summer weeks rotational. 2 bedroom & 2 full baths. Washer & Dryer. Log style chalet. RCI optional to trade. Beach, pool, game room, gym, grills, rotational boat docks. Boathouse Restaurant on premises. 300 feet of beachfront. HOA INCLUDES: insurance, taxes, all furniture, all appliances, electric, water and other utilities. MAINTENANCE OF ALL BUILDINGS, BEACH, DOCKS, FITNESS CENTER, INDOOR OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL, LANDSCAPING,PARKING LOT, etc. For 2023 ONLY the summer week has been replaced by June 4-11th. Call agent for more info.

5. 2022-09-28
   listed $39,000 Active 773-char remark

   Show marketing remark (773 chars)

   Interval 7-Prime week Last of week of July/1st week of August! Lodge 39. Great lower level unit in this beautiful fractional ownership lakeside resort community. Owners have 3 deeded weeks (summer is fixed week) w/ Spring & Summer weeks rotational. 2 bedroom & 2 full baths. Washer & Dryer. Log style chalet. RCI optional to trade. Beach, pool, game room, gym, grills, rotational boat docks. Boathouse Restaurant on premises. 300 feet of beachfront. HOA INCLUDES: insurance, taxes, all furniture, all appliances, electric, water and other utilities. MAINTENANCE OF ALL BUILDINGS, BEACH, DOCKS, FITNESS CENTER, INDOOR OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL, LANDSCAPING,PARKING LOT, etc. For 2023 ONLY the summer week has been replaced by June 4-11th. Call agent for more info.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − HOA: −$3,648
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $18,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,476
• After-tax cash flow: $13,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake George Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616470
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,873
• Composite: 61.29/100
• National rank: #777
• State rank: #131 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake George

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #15111

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment C- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,389

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-08-31 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-08-09 Listed $42,000 Global MLS
• 2023-01-13 Sold (MLS) $34,500 Global MLS
• 2023-01-03 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-09-28 Listed $39,000 Global MLS