11901 Sierra Way Way #43 · Kernville, CA 93238

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $72k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully upgraded 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering comfort, style, & a relaxed Kernville lifestyle. This move-in ready home features an open floor plan with fresh two-tone interior paint & gorgeous vinyl plank flooring throughout. The Updated kitchen includes a newer stove, kitchen sink, garbage disposal, & a convenient breakfast bar perfect for casual dining or entertaining. Additional improvements include new ceiling fans, mini blinds in living room, exterior screens, plumbing with new bathroom faucets & shower arms. A cozy pellet stove adds warmth & charm, & evaporate cooling with new motor provide year-round comfort. Enjoy

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Cozy pellet stove
• New ceiling fans

Tags

• UPGRADED MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• NEW CEILING FANS
• COZY PELLET STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Hi Ho Mobile Home Park (Space 43)
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Trash service; Pool; Association fees include sewer; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available; Propane; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Double-wide; Located in a senior area; Subject to CC&R's; Composition roof
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck; Covered patio; Patio; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Private maintained road; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Pellet stove; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings; Disposal; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 1.9% in Kernville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,366 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $818 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $127 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.32%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,760
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11901 Sierra Way Way #38	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	12mo	$53,000	$50	86
11901 Sierra Way Way #7	0.04mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	1mo	$107,000	$111	84
11901 Sierra Way Way #17	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+6%)	20mo	$47,000	$43	66
11901 Sierra Way Way #34	0.04mi	2/2.0	896 (-14%)	11mo	$62,000	$69	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $28,081
• Equity at exit: $29,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $77,412
• Equity at exit: $36,150

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93238

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $506	+0% $477	+5% $449	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $363	-5% $420	+0% $477	+5% $535	+10% $592
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $503	base $477	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Burlando Rd Unit A Kernville, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	4d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$324/yr (+$27/mo · 74.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $4,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Kernville

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1366
• US rank: #27076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kernville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 726

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Pacific Islander 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Current HPI: 212.9272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $99,900 SSMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $436 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.