244 Upper Samsonville Rd · Shokan, NY 12461

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1959 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect 1 acre Catskill Mountain property with old mobile home in need of total rehabilitation. No well or septic on site. No existing heat source.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 213 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $100k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.55%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $65,180
• Equity at exit: $37,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $157,151
• Equity at exit: $53,547

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12461

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 195 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 194 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $99,900 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Perfect 1 acre Catskill Mountain property with old mobile home in need of total rehabilitation. No well or septic on site. No existing heat source.

17. 2026-04-07
    price $99,900 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Perfect 1 acre Catskill Mountain property with old mobile home in need of total rehabilitation. No well or septic on site. No existing heat source.

18. 2025-11-16
    listed $149,900 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Perfect 1 acre Catskill Mountain property with old mobile home in need of total rehabilitation. No well or septic on site. No existing heat source.

19. 2025-11-16
    listed $149,900 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Perfect 1 acre Catskill Mountain property with old mobile home in need of total rehabilitation. No well or septic on site. No existing heat source.

20. 1986-12-23
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,563 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$1,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,038
• − Management: −$2,038
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $10,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $8,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shokan

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #888
• US rank: #17222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,359
• Population (ZIP): 1,426

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 346.6673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+399.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $99,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listed $149,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,438 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.