406 County Road 3415 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 196 Days on market

Built 2017 0.70 ac lot $184/sqft · 9% below area Est $187k · 9% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

These are two lots of 15,246 sf each totalling 30,492 sf. This nice single wide mobil home has everything you need to live or spend the weekend in a relaxing atmosphere, motivated sellers, hurry make it yours! May consider selling only the lots, inquiry within. SEO

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 195 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,265
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -9.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,449
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,196
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $848/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    price $170,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    These are two lots of 15,246 sf each totalling 30,492 sf. This nice single wide mobil home has everything you need to live or spend the weekend in a relaxing atmosphere, motivated sellers, hurry make it yours! May consider selling only the lots, inquiry within. SEO

15. 2026-05-17
    price $180,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    These are two lots of 15,246 sf each totalling 30,492 sf. This nice single wide mobil home has everything you need to live or spend the weekend in a relaxing atmosphere, motivated sellers, hurry make it yours! May consider selling only the lots, inquiry within. SEO

16. 2026-02-26
    price $190,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    These are two lots of 15,246 sf each totalling 30,492 sf. This nice single wide mobil home has everything you need to live or spend the weekend in a relaxing atmosphere, motivated sellers, hurry make it yours! May consider selling only the lots, inquiry within. SEO

17. 2025-12-05
    listed $200,000 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    These are two lots of 15,246 sf each totalling 30,492 sf. This nice single wide mobil home has everything you need to live or spend the weekend in a relaxing atmosphere, motivated sellers, hurry make it yours! May consider selling only the lots, inquiry within. SEO

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,263/yr (+$189/mo · 266.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$848
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$434
• After-tax cash flow: $1,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $200,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $848 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.