306 Laurel Dr · Winters, TX 79567

$129,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1965 0.26 ac lot $80/sqft · 22% above area Est $128k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 3/2 with Large den/ gameroom! the kitchen has oversized eat-at island and is an open concept with plenty of custom cabinetry. Original hardwoods grace the living room and bedrooms. Bedrooms have good closets. There is a full bath and a half bath. The half bath is plumbed to be a full bath. In the rear of the home is the large sunken den with retro fireplace that opens to the backyard and patio. Perfect for entertaining! Back yard has an ample sized shop/storage and newer privacy fence. This one is just waiting for it's next owner to love it and breathe life back into it!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Original hardwoods
• Open concept

Tags

• OVERSIZED EAT-AT ISLAND
• OPEN CONCEPT
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• ORIGINAL HARDWOODS
• LARGE SUNKEN DEN
• RETRO FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($474/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Winters ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #616 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Runnels County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,447
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 1.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $43,058
• Equity at exit: $84,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $124,008
• Equity at exit: $156,744

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79567

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,097/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 201 DOM
16. 2025-11-12
    listed $129,900 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Check out this 3/2 with Large den/ gameroom! the kitchen has oversized eat-at island and is an open concept with plenty of custom cabinetry. Original hardwoods grace the living room and bedrooms. Bedrooms have good closets. There is a full bath and a half bath. The half bath is plumbed to be a full bath. In the rear of the home is the large sunken den with retro fireplace that opens to the backyard and patio. Perfect for entertaining! Back yard has an ample sized shop/storage and newer privacy fence. This one is just waiting for it's next owner to love it and breathe life back into it!

17. 2022-05-20
    soldstatus
18. 2008-05-20
    soldstatus
19. 2004-05-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,097 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$280/yr (+$23/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,097
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$405
• After-tax cash flow: $878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winters ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846260
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,510
• Composite: 26.04/100
• National rank: #7304
• State rank: #616 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winters

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #6348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winters, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,924

Population outlook (Runnels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,754 people
• By 2030: 10,843 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 10,946 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 10,981 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 11,103 · +3.2%
• By 2100: 10,051 · -6.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 24% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Runnels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.1% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.1 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+62.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.39%
• Current HPI: 143.6466
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Listed $129,900 SAAR TX
• 2022-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,097 · +29.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.