616 NW 1st Ln · Cape Coral, FL 33993

$366,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · Land · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW BUILD - Anticipated Completion Date - AUGUST 2026. WAS $369,990 - NOW $366,990. ALL ASSESSMENTS PAID AT CLOSING. SPECIAL INCENTIVES: UP TO $20,000 towards CLOSING COST / PREPAIDS when using preferred lenders. The Waterford’s expansive 1,812-square-foot design lives even larger than its generous footprint suggests, showcasing a true open-concept layout that feels bright, airy, and exceptionally roomy. A wide gathering room anchored by a vaulted ceiling flows seamlessly into a designer kitchen, creating the perfect environment for entertaining or everyday living. The spacious kitchen features a large center island, shaker-style cabinetry, upgraded, quartz countertops, and stainless-

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Large center island
• Gathering room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GATHERING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILING
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Impact doors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Well water; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level 1; North-facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Under construction
• Exterior features: Open porch; Security/high impact doors; Corner lot; South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on single-story entry level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Family/Dining room; Living/Dining room; Pantry; Cable TV; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedrooms; Single hung windows with impact glass; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $367k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 2652 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $367k implies a 417% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,376 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-85,765
• Equity at exit: $54,719

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-127,546
• Equity at exit: $31,731

Cash invested: $102,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33993

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 2652
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,925
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,840

Max offer price $314,474

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-193	+0% $-297	+5% $-401	+10% $-505
Rent	-10% $-492	-5% $-395	+0% $-297	+5% $-200	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-204	base $-297	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,748
• Closing costs: $11,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 NW 1st Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.13mi
626 NW 2nd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,200	$1.73	16d	1	0.16mi
626 NW 2nd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,200	$1.73	24d	1	0.16mi
221 NW 3rd Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,600	$1.18	16d	1	0.47mi
701 SW Pine Island Rd Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$1,794	$1.58	2d	11	0.53mi
417 Coral Reef Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,200	$1.08	15d	1	0.55mi
227 NW 3rd Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$2,300	$1.16	22d	1	0.56mi
224 NW 2nd Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,750	$1.59	24d	1	0.56mi
118 NW 2nd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	1932	$3,600	$1.86	16d	1	0.61mi
212 NW 1st St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,775	$1.42	3d	1	0.61mi
204 NW 1st St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1826	$2,300	$1.26	3d	1	0.63mi
222 NW 4th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,450	$1.45	24d	1	0.66mi
213 NW 5th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,195	$1.21	3d	1	0.76mi
114 NW 13th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,000	$1.41	15d	1	0.78mi
1214 SW Embers Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,900	$1.04	24d	1	0.79mi
713 SW 4th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,085	$1.19	2d	1	0.85mi
749 SW 5th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,065	$1.47	3d	1	0.87mi
623 Parkshore Lake Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	3d	1	0.88mi
623 Parkshore Lake Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	14d	1	0.88mi
507 NW 1st Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,395	$1.41	24d	1	0.90mi
271 SW 4th St Unit 271 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,000	$1.59	24d	1	0.91mi
149 Santa Barbara Blvd S Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,520	$1.22	24d	1	0.94mi
433 SW 6th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2437	$2,225	$0.91	2d	1	0.97mi
1400 SW 1st Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,995	$1.23	24d	1	0.98mi
159 SE Santa Barbara Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,250	$1.59	24d	1	0.99mi
134 SE 1st Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,331	$1.39	3d	1	1.00mi
318 NW 8th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	3d	1	1.00mi
30 SE 1st Pl Unit 3013 Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2020	$2,300	$1.14	24d	1	1.00mi
910 NW 8th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,100	$1.30	16d	1	1.00mi
142 SE 1st Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,900	$1.22	15d	1	1.01mi
526 NW 9th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,100	$1.17	3d	1	1.03mi
227 Tropicana Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	2d	1	1.05mi
114 SE 3rd St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	1.12mi
1501 NW 4th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$3,800	$2.10	3d	1	1.13mi
376 Penley Lake Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$2,874	$2.40	2d	87	1.17mi
217 NW 9th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,271	$1.29	3d	1	1.19mi
409 SW 8th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$3,500	$1.66	16d	1	1.20mi
633 SW 9th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,191	$1.27	3d	1	1.23mi
818 SW 8th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,399	$1.40	24d	1	1.26mi
305 NW 16th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.5	1446	$2,095	$1.45	3d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $366,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,990 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,990 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,990 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $369,990 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,990 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    listed $369,990 Active
14. 2026-02-27
    soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,046 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,052/yr (+$88/mo · 52.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,557
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$1,835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − Depreciation: −$10,676
• Taxable loss: −$10,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,455
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $90,577
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 17% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.34%
• Current HPI: 337.0575
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+421.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $369,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,994 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.