4488 Rifkin Ave · North Port, FL 34286

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2006 10,375 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NORTH PORT CENTRAL LOCATION~ CLOSE TO BUSLINE!!!Beautiful, FURNISHED 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home situated in a quiet neighborhood close to I-75. Perfect for a second home, young family or investor. The eat-in kitchen includes all appliances, range, refrigerator, microwave, disposal, and dishwasher. Seller owns water softener and is included in purchase. Other features include a split floor plan, great room large enough for a dining area, walk in closets, indoor utility, and security system. Allblinds and window treatments are included. Enjoy the wooded view from the 10' x 16' screened-in patio. Home is located in a residential neighborhood close (about 1 mile) to the Paradise Shoppes of Heron Creek and the Heron Creek Town Center. Some of theshopping includes Publix, a Subway, Brickhouse Pizza, Walgreens, and a gas station and MORE! Come see for yourself!!

Key facts

• Gulf beaches
• Warm mineral springs
• Easy access to i-75

Tags

• BACKYARD STORAGE UNIT
• GULF BEACHES
• WARM MINERAL SPRINGS
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cranberry Elementary School (math 69% / reading 68%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 785 students, 68% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 42% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $240k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,023 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,764
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,706
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34286

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 837
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,842/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $389	+0% $321	+5% $254	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $230	+0% $321	+5% $413	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $382	base $321	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1450 Front Pl North Port, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,635	$2.33	2d	15	0.88mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $239,900
3. 2026-04-17
   status Active
4. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-05
   listed $249,900 Active
6. 2013-05-17
   soldstatus $122,000
7. 2013-05-15
   soldstatus $122,000 877-char remark

   Show marketing remark (877 chars)

   NORTH PORT CENTRAL LOCATION~ CLOSE TO BUSLINE!!!Beautiful, FURNISHED 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home situated in a quiet neighborhood close to I-75. Perfect for a second home, young family or investor. The eat-in kitchen includes all appliances, range, refrigerator, microwave, disposal, and dishwasher. Seller owns water softener and is included in purchase. Other features include a split floor plan, great room large enough for a dining area, walk in closets, indoor utility, and security system. Allblinds and window treatments are included. Enjoy the wooded view from the 10' x 16' screened-in patio. Home is located in a residential neighborhood close (about 1 mile) to the Paradise Shoppes of Heron Creek and the Heron Creek Town Center. Some of theshopping includes Publix, a Subway, Brickhouse Pizza, Walgreens, and a gas station and MORE! Come see for yourself!!

8. 2013-02-05
   listed $124,900 877-char remark

   Show marketing remark (877 chars)

   NORTH PORT CENTRAL LOCATION~ CLOSE TO BUSLINE!!!Beautiful, FURNISHED 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home situated in a quiet neighborhood close to I-75. Perfect for a second home, young family or investor. The eat-in kitchen includes all appliances, range, refrigerator, microwave, disposal, and dishwasher. Seller owns water softener and is included in purchase. Other features include a split floor plan, great room large enough for a dining area, walk in closets, indoor utility, and security system. Allblinds and window treatments are included. Enjoy the wooded view from the 10' x 16' screened-in patio. Home is located in a residential neighborhood close (about 1 mile) to the Paradise Shoppes of Heron Creek and the Heron Creek Town Center. Some of theshopping includes Publix, a Subway, Brickhouse Pizza, Walgreens, and a gas station and MORE! Come see for yourself!!

9. 2012-07-20
   listed $115,900
10. 2008-06-20
    historical
11. 2007-11-01
    listed $149,000
12. 2007-08-03
    historical
13. 2007-08-03
    historical
14. 2007-04-04
    listed $178,000
15. 2007-03-27
    listed $164,000
16. 2007-03-27
    listed $159,900
17. 2006-08-25
    listed $199,800
18. 2005-07-15
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,842 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,842
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$71
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,534
• Household income: $80,553
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 545.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.36%
• Current HPI: 297.3707
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+585.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-15 Sold (MLS) $122,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-05 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-20 Listed $115,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-01 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-04 Listed $178,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-27 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-27 Listed $164,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-25 Listed $199,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,842 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.