518 Willow St · San Antonio, TX 78202

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1930 0.28 ac lot Est $229k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special with strong upside potential on San Antonio's growing East Side. Situated on an oversized lot with room to add value, renovate, expand, or reimagine. Convenient location near downtown, major highways, and ongoing development. Opportunity and potential all in one.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Oversized lot
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Located in Dignowity Hill Historic District
• Construction: Approximately 96 years old; Other roof type (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Siding exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 10 x 13
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom approximately 13 x 14; Second bedroom approximately 13 x 13; Third bedroom approximately 20 x 13
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating (see remarks); Other heating fuel (see remarks); Other air conditioning (see remarks)
• Interior features: One living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,417 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.74%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 Burnet St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	0mo	$299,900	$300	75
132 Sharer	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,098 (+5%)	4mo	$120,000	$109	74
204 Gorman	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,054 (+0%)	3mo	$245,000	$232	70
1019 Nolan	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,184 (+13%)	2mo	$210,000	$177	63
1015 Rogers	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,136 (+8%)	3mo	$76,019	$67	61
1413 Burnet	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,005 (-4%)	4mo	$250,000	$249	60
1717 Rogers	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+3%)	6mo	$165,000	$153	55
426 N Monumental St	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (-9%)	2mo	$209,000	$218	53
1108 E Crockett	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,082 (+3%)	8mo	$184,000	$170	53
1607 Hays	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	892 (-15%)	0mo	$145,000	$163	39
906 E Carson St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,178 (+12%)	2mo	$307,000	$261	39
1531 Burnet	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	913 (-13%)	7mo	$215,000	$235	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $98,086
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $327,305
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78202

• Home prices YoY: 27.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,341/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $144,417

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-258	+0% $-315	+5% $-371	+10% $-428
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-382	+0% $-315	+5% $-247	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-264	base $-315	+0.5pp $-366	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Burleson San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1456	$1,629	$1.12	44d	1	0.06mi
1102 Burleson San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	24d	1	0.24mi
118 Canadian St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	44d	1	0.26mi
1123 N Olive St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,600	$1.90	24d	1	0.27mi
1225 Burnet St Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,850	$1.52	44d	1	0.28mi
103 Saint Charles Unit NA San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.43mi
511 N Monumental San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1206	$1,595	$1.32	5d	1	0.44mi
1412 Hays St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	24d	1	0.47mi
1323 Lamar St #1 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$999	$1.11	44d	1	0.47mi
103 Saint John San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$1,245	$1.32	44d	1	0.51mi
704 N Cherry St Unit 704 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	0.52mi
603 N Mesquite St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,750	$1.31	24d	1	0.52mi
1411 Lamar St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,125	$1.61	44d	1	0.53mi
1121 Willow St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.54mi
1116 Muncey St Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	896	$1,600	$1.79	44d	1	0.54mi
1116 Muncey St Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	896	$1,500	$1.67	17d	1	0.54mi
1615 Nolan St Unit A San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,400	$1.31	11d	1	0.55mi
1606 N Hackberry St #102 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1474	$2,500	$1.70	11d	1	0.58mi
431 N Mesquite St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,750	$1.43	15d	1	0.58mi
155 Canton San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,250	$1.16	24d	1	0.59mi
418 Lockhart St Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1479	$1,590	$1.08	44d	1	0.61mi
418 Lockhart San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1479	$1,799	$1.22	22d	1	0.61mi
1219 Muncey San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	944	$1,350	$1.43	24d	1	0.62mi
323 Gabriel San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	22d	1	0.64mi
323 Gabriel Unit 1 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,950	$1.39	24d	1	0.64mi
323 Gabriel Unit 1 201 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1000	$1,375	$1.38	44d	1	0.64mi
323 Gabriel San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	24d	1	0.64mi
330 E Carson St Unit 3103 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1398	$2,170	$1.55	44d	1	0.65mi
330 E Carson St Unit 3103 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1398	$1,890	$1.35	24d	1	0.65mi
330 E Carson St Unit 1201 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,650	$1.36	24d	1	0.65mi
330 E Carson St San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1398	$1,890	$1.35	20d	1	0.65mi
330 E Carson St Unit 2103 San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1428	$2,215	$1.55	44d	1	0.65mi
330 E Carson St Unit 2103 San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1428	$1,930	$1.35	24d	1	0.65mi
330 E Carson St San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1398	$1,890	$1.35	22d	1	0.65mi
410 E Carson St Unit 3 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	900	$1,800	$2.00	44d	1	0.65mi
620 Potomac San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	22d	1	0.70mi
1021 N Alamo St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1202	$2,000	$1.66	44d	1	0.72mi
1104 N Gevers St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1276	$1,725	$1.35	44d	1	0.73mi
925 E Carson St Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,918	$1.88	3d	1	0.74mi
201 E Carson St Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	927	$2,500	$2.70	44d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 New 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 New 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 New 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 New 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 New 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 New 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $200,000 New
15. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,341 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,341 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$6,341
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,224
• Household income: $47,478
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 543.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 28% White 17% Black 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.82%
• Current HPI: 253.3196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $200,000 LERA
• 2015-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,341 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.