1076 Fairbank Ln · Chelsea, AL 35043

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2007 3,484 sqft lot $164/sqft · 15% below area Est $270k · 15% under $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in the desirable Chelsea Park community. This inviting home features an open and functional layout with a spacious living area highlighted by a decorative fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly together, making everyday living and meals easy and convenient. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and ample closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Laminate wood flooring throughout the main living areas adds style and durability, with comfortable carpeting in the bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the private backyard—perfect for relaxing or weekend gatherings. Situated in Chelsea Park, residents enjoy well-maintained streets, nearby parks, walking trails, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools.

Key facts

• Decorative fireplace
• Private backyard
• Top-rated schools

Tags

• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WALKING TRAILS
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $230k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,233
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -14.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1104 Fairbank Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (+4%)	3mo	$270,000	$186	84
1045 Crawford Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-3%)	0mo	$265,000	$196	83
2029 Preston Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+4%)	6mo	$270,000	$186	83
2032 Fairbank Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+11%)	3mo	$255,000	$164	78
1077 Fairbank Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,262 (-10%)	5mo	$235,000	$186	73
2021 Fairbank Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+11%)	11mo	$275,500	$178	70
1017 Fairbank Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+11%)	8mo	$264,000	$170	70
131 Lake Chelsea Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+8%)	10mo	$318,000	$210	64
1056 Crawford Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+10%)	10mo	$255,000	$166	63
4966 Hawthorne Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+11%)	8mo	$329,900	$213	61
1047 Springfield Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+11%)	10mo	$285,000	$184	53
571 Grayson Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+10%)	7mo	$290,000	$189	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,354
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-11,061
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35043

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,812/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,952

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Park Crest Run Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,195	$1.24	3d	1	0.95mi
464 Crossbridge Rd Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.5	1858	$2,175	$1.17	11d	1	0.97mi
173 Chelsea Park Rd Chelsea, AL	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,070	$1.22	3d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $239,900 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in the desirable Chelsea Park community. This inviting home features an open and functional layout with a spacious living area highlighted by a decorative fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly together, making everyday living and meals easy and convenient. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and ample closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Laminate wood flooring throughout the main living areas adds style and durability, with comfortable carpeting in the bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the private backyard—perfect for relaxing or weekend gatherings. Situated in Chelsea Park, residents enjoy well-maintained streets, nearby parks, walking trails, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools.

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $244,900 Active 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in the desirable Chelsea Park community. This inviting home features an open and functional layout with a spacious living area highlighted by a decorative fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly together, making everyday living and meals easy and convenient. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath and ample closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Laminate wood flooring throughout the main living areas adds style and durability, with comfortable carpeting in the bedrooms. Step outside to enjoy the private backyard—perfect for relaxing or weekend gatherings. Situated in Chelsea Park, residents enjoy well-maintained streets, nearby parks, walking trails, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools.

18. 2015-04-08
    soldstatus $117,000
19. 2015-04-03
    soldstatus $117,000 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Foreclosure in Chelsea Park. 3 Bedroom / 2 Bath on one level. Large Backyard. Large Great Room and Kitchen. Part of Chelsea Park with Lakes, Walking paths, side walks.

20. 2015-03-26
    historical 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Foreclosure in Chelsea Park. 3 Bedroom / 2 Bath on one level. Large Backyard. Large Great Room and Kitchen. Part of Chelsea Park with Lakes, Walking paths, side walks.

21. 2015-01-05
    listed $129,900 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Foreclosure in Chelsea Park. 3 Bedroom / 2 Bath on one level. Large Backyard. Large Great Room and Kitchen. Part of Chelsea Park with Lakes, Walking paths, side walks.

22. 2008-02-18
    soldstatus $139,175

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,812
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$1,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$467
• After-tax cash flow: $2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, AL
• City population: 15,068
• Population (ZIP): 15,068

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Arabic 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.08%
• Current HPI: 205.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $239,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $244,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2015-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-03 Sold (MLS) $117,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2015-03-26 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2015-01-05 Listed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2008-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $139,175 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,812 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.