9 Birch St · Berlin, NH 03570

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 339 Days on market

Built 1890 Poor condition 1,742 sqft lot $84/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contractor Special! 3 Bed, 1 Bath Home – Needs Rehab This is your chance to bring new life to a fixer-upper located just minutes from town. With 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, this home has solid potential for a flip, rental, or primary residence with some sweat equity. Enjoy direct ATV access—ride straight from your property to the nearby trail system!

Key facts

• Direct atv access
• Nearby trail system
• 1,742 sq ft lot

Tags

• DIRECT ATV ACCESS
• NEARBY TRAIL SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 7.5% in Berlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#67 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Berlin School District (town): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #91 of 98 in NH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Berlin Elementary School (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #188 of 263 statewide, top 71%, 422 students, 62% FRL); Berlin Middle School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #88 of 96 statewide, top 93%, 220 students, 47% FRL); Berlin Senior High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #82 of 90 statewide, top 91%, 368 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 95 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $85k implies a 347% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.24%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,682
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -52.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Grafton St	0.46mi	3/1.0	968 (-4%)	5mo	$30,000	$31	68
167 Norway St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,071 (+6%)	2mo	$117,500	$110	61
56 Pershing Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (0%)	7mo	$50,000	$50	60
243 Sweden St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+4%)	2mo	$64,900	$62	59
407 Coos St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+6%)	4mo	$195,000	$183	57
263 Sweden St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,013 (+0%)	11mo	$180,000	$178	57
84 Summer St	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,124 (+12%)	10mo	$110,000	$98	55
191 Norway St	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,020 (+1%)	11mo	$250,000	$245	53
324 Coos St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+8%)	11mo	$179,890	$165	52
115 Sweden St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,146 (+14%)	0mo	$226,500	$198	51
6 Demers St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	932 (-8%)	0mo	$124,000	$133	48
397 Church St	0.61mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	12mo	$80,000	$93	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $84,585
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.21×
• Total profit: $219,222
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.6 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $179,000 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 03570

• Home prices YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,517/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $624	+0% $600	+5% $576	+10% $552
Rent	-10% $471	-5% $535	+0% $600	+5% $664	+10% $729
Rate	-1.0pp $643	-0.5pp $621	base $600	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 339 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $85,000 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 335 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 331 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $85,000 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $85,000 Active 329 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $85,000 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $85,000 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $85,000 Active 324 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $85,000 Active 323 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $85,000 Active 322 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $85,000 Active 321 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $85,000 Active 320 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $85,000 Active 318 DOM
18. 2026-07-17
    days on market $85,000 Active 316 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $85,000 Active 315 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $85,000 Active 314 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $85,000 Active 313 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $85,000 Active 312 DOM
23. 2026-07-12
    days on market $85,000 Active 311 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $85,000 Active 310 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 309 DOM
26. 2026-07-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 307 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $85,000 Active 306 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 305 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 304 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 303 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 302 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 301 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 300 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $85,000 Active 299 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $85,000 Active 298 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $85,000 Active 297 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $85,000 Active 296 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $85,000 Active 292 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $85,000 Active 291 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $85,000 Active 290 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $85,000 Active 288 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $85,000 Active 287 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $85,000 Active 286 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $85,000 Active 285 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $85,000 Active 283 DOM
46. 2026-06-12
    days on market $85,000 Active 282 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 279 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 278 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 277 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 276 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,517
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,293
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $5,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $50,400–$90,720 screening

This property is in poor condition and requires extensive repairs and maintenance. The home is cluttered and in need of cleaning, painting, and appliance replacement. The exterior is also cluttered and in need of landscaping. The home has potential for resale and rental value with the right updates.

Deferred maintenance Est. $60,000–$180,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Significant damage to the roof structure is visible.
• Major Windows (windows) — Windows appear to be broken or missing, indicating severe damage.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The interior is cluttered with debris, suggesting potential electrical hazards.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The bathroom appears to be in disrepair, with visible damage to fixtures and flooring.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house is in a state of disrepair, with visible damage to siding and structural elements.
• Major Other — The overall condition of the house suggests significant structural and safety issues that require immediate attention.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Appliances are old and need replacement
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Bathroom is cluttered and needs cleaning
• Major Exterior cleaning — Exterior is cluttered and needs cleaning
• Major Flooring replacement — Flooring is worn and needs replacement
• Major Painting — Painted walls need fresh paint

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen appliances — New appliances will attract buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Clean and organized bathroom will attract buyers ↑
• Resale Exterior cleaning — Clean and organized exterior will attract buyers ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance ↑
• Resale Painting — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Berlin Elementary School F NH #188/263 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Berlin Middle School F NH #88/96 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Berlin Senior High School F NH #82/90 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin School District
• NCES district ID: 3301860
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,494
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8095
• State rank: #91 of 98 in NH

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berlin, NH
• County: Coos · 30,912 people
• City population: 9,473
• Population (ZIP): 9,473
• Household income: $43,972
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,912 people
• By 2030: 29,872 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,449 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 25,049 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 19,584 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 13,818 · -55.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.7% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+5.9 2016: R+9.1 2012: D+17.6 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.16%
• Current HPI: 440.9127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+241.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-03 Listed $85,000 PrimeMLS
• 2013-01-28 Sold (MLS) $19,000 PrimeMLS
• 2009-01-08 Listed $22,900 PrimeMLS
• 2003-10-02 Sold (MLS) $32,400 PrimeMLS
• 2003-09-09 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2003-05-21 Listed $34,900 PrimeMLS
• 2003-05-08 Sold (MLS) $12,000 PrimeMLS
• 2003-03-21 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2003-03-14 Listed $24,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,517 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.