9 Birch St · Berlin, NH 03570

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 288 Days on market

Built 1890 1,742 sqft lot $84/sqft · 48% below area Est $165k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contractor Special! 3 Bed, 1 Bath Home – Needs Rehab This is your chance to bring new life to a fixer-upper located just minutes from town. With 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, this home has solid potential for a flip, rental, or primary residence with some sweat equity. Enjoy direct ATV access—ride straight from your property to the nearby trail system! cash only -sold as is

Key facts

• Direct atv access
• Nearby trail system
• 1,742 sq ft lot

Tags

• DIRECT ATV ACCESS
• NEARBY TRAIL SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 7.1% in Berlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#67 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Berlin School District (town): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #91 of 98 in NH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $85k implies a 347% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.85%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,574
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -48.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Grafton St	0.46mi	3/1.0	968 (-4%)	3mo	$30,000	$31	69
56 Pershing Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (0%)	5mo	$50,000	$50	61
407 Coos St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+6%)	2mo	$195,000	$183	59
263 Sweden St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,013 (+0%)	9mo	$180,000	$178	58
84 Summer St	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,124 (+12%)	8mo	$110,000	$98	57
191 Norway St	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,020 (+1%)	10mo	$250,000	$245	55
324 Coos St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+8%)	10mo	$179,890	$165	54
416 Madison Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,046 (+4%)	11mo	$104,000	$99	51
579 Burgess St	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,081 (+7%)	16mo	$120,000	$111	46
88 Eight St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	962 (-5%)	19mo	$187,000	$194	43
397 Church St	0.61mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	10mo	$80,000	$93	40
630 Howland St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,123 (+11%)	13mo	$215,000	$191	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $84,084
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.17×
• Total profit: $218,139
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03570

• Home prices YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,517/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 279 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 276 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 270 DOM
15. 2025-09-03
    listed $85,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Contractor Special! 3 Bed, 1 Bath Home – Needs Rehab This is your chance to bring new life to a fixer-upper located just minutes from town. With 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, this home has solid potential for a flip, rental, or primary residence with some sweat equity. Enjoy direct ATV access—ride straight from your property to the nearby trail system! cash only -sold as is

16. 2013-01-28
    soldstatus $19,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This cozy low maintenance home is perfect for the person looking for affordable living. It has a large eat in kitchen, a large livingroom and a laundry/utility room on the first floor and three bedrooms and full bath on the second floor. With a newer roof and boiler, windows, and vinyl siding all you need to do is bring your furniture.

17. 2009-01-08
    listed $22,900 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This cozy low maintenance home is perfect for the person looking for affordable living. It has a large eat in kitchen, a large livingroom and a laundry/utility room on the first floor and three bedrooms and full bath on the second floor. With a newer roof and boiler, windows, and vinyl siding all you need to do is bring your furniture.

18. 2003-10-02
    soldstatus $32,400
19. 2003-09-09
    historical
20. 2003-05-21
    listed $34,900
21. 2003-05-08
    soldstatus $12,000
22. 2003-03-21
    historical
23. 2003-03-14
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,517
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $5,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin School District
• NCES district ID: 3301860
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,494
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8095
• State rank: #91 of 98 in NH

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berlin, NH
• City population: 9,473
• Population (ZIP): 9,473

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,912 people
• By 2030: 29,872 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,449 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 25,049 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 19,584 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 13,818 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.7% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+5.9 2016: R+9.1 2012: D+17.6 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.16%
• Current HPI: 440.9127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+241.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-03 Listed $85,000 PrimeMLS
• 2013-01-28 Sold (MLS) $19,000 PrimeMLS
• 2009-01-08 Listed $22,900 PrimeMLS
• 2003-10-02 Sold (MLS) $32,400 PrimeMLS
• 2003-09-09 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2003-05-21 Listed $34,900 PrimeMLS
• 2003-05-08 Sold (MLS) $12,000 PrimeMLS
• 2003-03-21 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2003-03-14 Listed $24,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,517 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.