208 Flying Tigers Trl · Sonterra, TX 76537

$227,895

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 $144/sqft · 8% below area Est $249k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and experience the charm of the Iris floorplan at Cool Water, a stunning two-story home in Jarrell, Texas, offering approximately 1,588 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a spacious two-car garage. As you enter, you're greeted by the open-concept dining and kitchen area, where the kitchen features a large island that provides additional seating and storage, making it the heart of the home. The living room is located just off the kitchen, offering plenty of natural light with three large windows that look out to the backyard. Upstairs, the Iris floor plan provides ample living space with a spacious game room, ideal for family fun or additional entertainment

Key facts

• Iris floorplan
• Primary bathroom
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• IRIS FLOORPLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT DINING
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• PRIMARY BATHROOM
• DUAL-SINK VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces, including a 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property (Spec new construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 208 Flying Tigers Trl, Jarrell, TX 76537

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home, Plan named Iris; Living area approximately 1,586

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-616/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $192,856 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,683
• List price: $227,895
• Delta: -8.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Starpacker Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+1%)	1mo	$246,999	$154	82
356 Brannigan Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+1%)	2mo	$239,990	$149	81
121 Starpacker Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+1%)	2mo	$232,999	$145	81
344 Brannigan Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+1%)	2mo	$229,990	$143	81
129 Morrison Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-0%)	2mo	$252,900	$160	77
149 Starpacker Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-11%)	0mo	$204,999	$145	73
141 Starpacker Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-11%)	1mo	$204,999	$145	72
129 Starpacker Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-11%)	1mo	$218,999	$154	71
360 Brannigan Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-11%)	1mo	$216,999	$154	70
113 Starpacker Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-11%)	3mo	$226,990	$160	69
125 Starpacker Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-11%)	3mo	$227,990	$162	69
109 Green Berets Bnd	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,625 (+2%)	2mo	$271,990	$167	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-45,823
• Equity at exit: $33,980

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-65,839
• Equity at exit: $19,704

Cash invested: $63,811 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,195
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$285 /mo · $3,418/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $220,462

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $27	+0% $-51	+5% $-130	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-128	+0% $-51	+5% $25	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $7	base $-51	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,974
• Closing costs: $6,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.18mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.18mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.22mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.25mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.27mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	0d	1	0.32mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.32mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.38mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.88mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	45d	1	0.90mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	5d	1	0.99mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,870	$0.98	0d	1	1.01mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.03mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	1.03mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.06mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.11mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.17mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.25mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	45d	1	1.29mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	1.30mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	25d	1	1.38mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	22d	1	1.41mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	19d	1	1.42mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.43mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	19d	1	1.46mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	1.46mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	6d	1	1.50mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	12d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $227,895 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,895 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,895 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,895 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,895 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,895 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,895 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,895 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,895 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $242,895 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,895 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,895 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,895 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,895 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $242,895 Active 1496-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,766
• − Property taxes: −$3,418
• − Insurance: −$1,139
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$6,630
• Taxable loss: −$4,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B