163-165 Warwick Ave · Rochester, NY 14611

$49,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,051 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 5,400 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * EXCEPTIONAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY * * * This CLASSIC 19th WARD DUPLEX is PRICED TO SELL @ $16/SF ——> DO THE MATH and LOCK IN THAT CASH FLOW!!! ORIGINAL CHARM and ARCHITECTURAL CHARM can be found throughout! Both units feature THREE BEDROOMS, ONE FULL BATHROOM, * * * HARDWOOD FLOORS * * * , GENEROUSLY SIZED LIVING AREA with OVERSIZED BAY WINDOWS, FORMAL DINING ROOM, * * * ORIGINAL FIXTURES and GUM WOOD TRIM * * * , LARGE KITCHEN with TIN CEILING and BUTLER’S PANTRY and PLENTY OF STORAGE, WALK-UP ATTIC for STORAGE or ADDITIONAL FUTURE LIVING SPACE, VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS, LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING, * * * SEPARATE UTILITIES * * * , OFF STREET

Key facts

• Tin ceiling
• Butler's pantry
• Original fixtures

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ORIGINAL FIXTURES
• GUM WOOD TRIM
• TIN CEILING
• BUTLER'S PANTRY
• WALK-UP ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 35.1% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,068/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.82%
• DSCR: 5.57
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,805
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
163-165 Warwick Ave	0.00mi	6/2.0	3,051 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$25	99
312-314 Chili Ave	0.24mi	6/2.0	3,002 (-2%)	0mo	$164,777	$55	86
184 Warwick Ave	0.04mi	6/2.0	2,838 (-7%)	14mo	$178,000	$63	75
104 Hobart St	0.36mi	7/2.0 (+1)	2,637 (-14%)	4mo	$149,900	$57	52
175 Bartlett St	0.59mi	6/2.0	2,760 (-10%)	9mo	$160,000	$58	49
65-67 York St	0.51mi	6/2.0	2,817 (-8%)	18mo	$200,000	$71	48
363 Arnett Blvd	0.20mi	6/2.0	2,624 (-14%)	23mo	$100,000	$38	48
303 West Ave	0.38mi	6/4.0	3,330 (+9%)	20mo	$87,500	$26	42
298 Hawley St	0.70mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,885 (-5%)	23mo	$42,000	$15	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.93% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $75,642
• Equity at exit: $7,593

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.06×
• Total profit: $196,408
• Equity at exit: $4,577

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14611

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,849/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $1,197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $553

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
649 Jay St Rochester, NY	5.0	2.0	2144	$2,000	$0.93	2d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,849 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,849 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,849
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $14,500
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,480
• After-tax cash flow: $10,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,145
• Household income: $31,376
• Rent vs Own: 64.5% rent · 35.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2168.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.93%
• Current HPI: 262.1549
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,849 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.