52153 Als Rd · Nikiski, AK 99611

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2004 0.92 ac lot $221/sqft · 35% below area Est $360k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy cottage style get away 1 bedroom home with a loft for guests. Currently in use as a bed and breakfast. Can come fully furnished with everything you see onsite. Close to fishing and well upkept.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Nikiski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#131 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $179,776 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,565
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -41.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,781
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,635
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99611

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $639/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,572

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   Cozy cottage style get away 1 bedroom home with a loft for guests. Currently in use as a bed and breakfast. Can come fully furnished with everything you see onsite. Close to fishing and well upkept.

2. 2026-02-09
   price $210,000 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   Cozy cottage style get away 1 bedroom home with a loft for guests. Currently in use as a bed and breakfast. Can come fully furnished with everything you see onsite. Close to fishing and well upkept.

3. 2026-01-09
   listed $225,000 Active 198-char remark

   Show marketing remark (198 chars)

   Cozy cottage style get away 1 bedroom home with a loft for guests. Currently in use as a bed and breakfast. Can come fully furnished with everything you see onsite. Close to fishing and well upkept.

4. 2022-05-16
   soldstatus
5. 2022-04-01
   status Pending
6. 2022-03-15
   price $165,000
7. 2021-11-18
   price $175,000
8. 2021-10-26
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $639 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$930/yr (+$77/mo · 145.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$639
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$1,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$346
• After-tax cash flow: $2,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikiski

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #22928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikiski, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,028

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.50%
• Current HPI: 169.2848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $210,000 AKMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $225,000 AKMLS
• 2022-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-01 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-03-15 Price Changed $165,000 AKMLS
• 2021-11-18 Price Changed $175,000 AKMLS
• 2021-10-26 Listed $195,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $639 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.