10959 Newton Cir · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2006 2.90 ac lot $181/sqft · 24% below area Est $289k · 24% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home on wooded retreat with workshop!!! Unrestricted 3-acre property on the outskirts of Conroe offering rare privacy, space, a 3/2 mobile home (2006) and an incredible 30x42 metal shop! Shop features 2 bay doors, 2 entry doors, and 20’ lean-tos on both sides, ideal for equipment, projects, storage, or a home-based business. The property is designed for true country living with wide drive-through trails leading to the home and continuing back to the shop. Additional improvements include a 20x20 shed directly behind the home (ideal for storage or a future conversion) plus a 10x10 storage shed near the front. The 2006 manufactured home sits privately in the center of the acreage and offers an open kitchen with custom cabinetry with glass front details, oversized laundry room, large primary closet, garden tub, separate shower, 2 secondary bedrooms and full bath. Home needs some TLC but overall in good condition. A one-of-a-kind setup with land, shop, and seclusion near Conroe!

Key facts

• 3 acre property
• 30x42 metal shop
• 2 bay doors

Tags

• 3 ACRE PROPERTY
• 30X42 METAL SHOP
• 2 BAY DOORS
• 20 LEAN-TOS
• WIDE DRIVE-THROUGH TRAILS
• 20X20 SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,905 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,000
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -23.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-51,413
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-77,925
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $195,369

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-94	+0% $-170	+5% $-246	+10% $-321
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-237	+0% $-170	+5% $-102	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-114	base $-170	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $239,900 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Mobile home on wooded retreat with workshop!!! Unrestricted 3-acre property on the outskirts of Conroe offering rare privacy, space, a 3/2 mobile home (2006) and an incredible 30x42 metal shop! Shop features 2 bay doors, 2 entry doors, and 20’ lean-tos on both sides, ideal for equipment, projects, storage, or a home-based business. The property is designed for true country living with wide drive-through trails leading to the home and continuing back to the shop. Additional improvements include a 20x20 shed directly behind the home (ideal for storage or a future conversion) plus a 10x10 storage shed near the front. The 2006 manufactured home sits privately in the center of the acreage and offers an open kitchen with custom cabinetry with glass front details, oversized laundry room, large primary closet, garden tub, separate shower, 2 secondary bedrooms and full bath. Home needs some TLC but overall in good condition. A one-of-a-kind setup with land, shop, and seclusion near Conroe!

16. 2026-02-05
    listed $250,000 Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Mobile home on wooded retreat with workshop!!! Unrestricted 3-acre property on the outskirts of Conroe offering rare privacy, space, a 3/2 mobile home (2006) and an incredible 30x42 metal shop! Shop features 2 bay doors, 2 entry doors, and 20’ lean-tos on both sides, ideal for equipment, projects, storage, or a home-based business. The property is designed for true country living with wide drive-through trails leading to the home and continuing back to the shop. Additional improvements include a 20x20 shed directly behind the home (ideal for storage or a future conversion) plus a 10x10 storage shed near the front. The 2006 manufactured home sits privately in the center of the acreage and offers an open kitchen with custom cabinetry with glass front details, oversized laundry room, large primary closet, garden tub, separate shower, 2 secondary bedrooms and full bath. Home needs some TLC but overall in good condition. A one-of-a-kind setup with land, shop, and seclusion near Conroe!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$5,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $-622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $422 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.