313 Running Rd · Piney Green, NC 28546

$263,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1992 9,148 sqft lot Est $249k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your next home in the heart of Jacksonville! This beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom property at 313 Running Drive offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Step inside to find a spacious and inviting layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The open living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, making it easy to stay connected with family and guests. With four generously sized bedrooms, there's plenty of room for everyone! Enjoy the fully functional backyard with a shed, the yard is perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend barbecues, or creating your own outdoor oasis. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and milit

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-10

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (front-facing); 1 garage parking space; On-site concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; One-level / single-story; Entry at level 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single family home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Chain link fencing around back yard; Shed(s) on property; Paved road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($781/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Piney Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#524 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary School (math 45% / reading 47%, grade D-, #551 of 1,410 statewide, top 40%, 541 students, 53% FRL); Hunters Creek Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 922 students, 55% FRL); White Oak High (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #265 of 535 statewide, top 50%, 1,207 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 37% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $263k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,101 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Running Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,461 (+3%)	1mo	$255,000	$175	93
300 Brookstone Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,416 (-0%)	1mo	$245,000	$173	87
207 Chaparral Trl	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,426 (+1%)	2mo	$220,000	$154	82
295 Brookstone Way	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,582 (+12%)	4mo	$296,000	$187	65
342 Palamino Trl	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,538 (+8%)	1mo	$269,900	$175	64
103 Lariat Ln	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,538 (+8%)	2mo	$265,000	$172	64
302 Paddock Pl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,241 (-12%)	3mo	$229,000	$185	62
106 Cobalt Stream Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+13%)	3mo	$281,500	$176	62
304 Sheffield Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (-1%)	3mo	$224,900	$161	58
117 Heavens Gate Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,304 (-8%)	2mo	$257,400	$197	55
403 Halo Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-12%)	1mo	$249,900	$201	47
106 S S. Sea St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (+10%)	1mo	$305,000	$196	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-36,773
• Equity at exit: $39,214

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-19,570
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28546

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,082/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,999

Max offer price $263,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $139	+0% $65	+5% $-9	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-17	+0% $65	+5% $147	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $132	base $65	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 White Stone Ct Jacksonville, NC	4.0	2.0	1460	$2,150	$1.47	23d	1	0.46mi
303 Elk Ct Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,000	$1.17	15d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $263,000 Active
3. 2006-12-20
   soldstatus $138,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,082 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,157 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,075/yr (+$90/mo · 99.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$1,082
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$3,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$913
• After-tax cash flow: $1,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Piney Green

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #19401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piney Green, NC
• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $63,561
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1830.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.75%
• Current HPI: 211.9993
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+89.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $263,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,082 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.