Lynwood Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$394,949

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily · 224 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On the main floor of the inviting Lynwood plan, you'll find a convenient powder room, a spacious great room and an impressive kitchen boasting a center island, walk-in pantry and adjacent dining nook. Other highlights include a convenient laundry, a covered patio and a stunning primary suite showcasing a private bath and an oversized walk-in closet. Upstairs, discover a versatile loft, three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets and a shared bath with double sinks.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 224 days

🏗️ New construction. The $394,949 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $504,702.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-861 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $332,535 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.31%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,702
• List price: $394,949
• Delta: -22.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2223 Anders Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,170 (+2%)	1mo	$432,499	$199	87
14534 Banks Ct	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,077 (-2%)	1mo	$419,999	$202	86
14511 Banks Ct	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,077 (-2%)	1mo	$452,500	$218	83
14519 Banks Ct	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,170 (+2%)	4mo	$444,999	$205	82
14620 20th St E	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,197 (+3%)	6mo	$413,500	$188	77
14514 20th St E	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,197 (+3%)	5mo	$450,000	$205	74
2116 151st Ter E	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,282 (+7%)	1mo	$635,000	$278	73
14314 17th Ct E	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,129 (-0%)	8mo	$462,500	$217	61
1825 Twin Rivers Trl	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,309 (+8%)	14mo	$730,000	$316	57
14325 17th Ct E	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,395 (+12%)	0mo	$420,000	$175	44
15914 29th St E	0.45mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,288 (+7%)	19mo	$620,000	$271	43
14285 17th Ct E	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,395 (+12%)	2mo	$507,000	$212	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-146,307
• Equity at exit: $75,253

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-235,460
• Equity at exit: $43,637

Cash invested: $141,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $522,000 ($220/sqft)
• Median days on market: 166 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2985
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,647
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$631 /mo · $7,571/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-861

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,415

Max offer price $380,135

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-512	-5% $-686	+0% $-861	+5% $-1,035	+10% $-1,210
Rent	-10% $-1,124	-5% $-992	+0% $-861	+5% $-730	+10% $-598
Rate	-1.0pp $-607	-0.5pp $-732	base $-861	+0.5pp $-992	+1.0pp $-1,125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,175
• Closing costs: $15,141
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16465 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2045	$2,400	$1.17	9d	1	1.10mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	119d	1	1.11mi
2840 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2601	$2,785	$1.07	4d	1	1.25mi
16536 Cheyanne Ct Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2377	$2,790	$1.17	7d	1	1.32mi
16540 Cheyanne Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1977	$2,505	$1.27	9d	1	1.32mi
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$6,500	$2.50	9d	1	1.34mi
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	119d	1	1.35mi
13744 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2274	$2,850	$1.25	81d	1	1.41mi
13927 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2552	$3,350	$1.31	7d	1	1.44mi
3307 Barber Ave Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2377	$2,760	$1.16	7d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $419,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Lynwood planNew construction (Plan inventory type)
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2132Plan home location: 2401 Twin Rivers Trl, Parrish FL 34219

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan home)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan home)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (plan home)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $394,949 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $394,949 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   pricedays on market $394,949 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $389,999 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $389,999 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $389,999 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $389,999 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $389,999 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $389,999 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $389,999 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $389,999 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $389,999 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $389,999 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $389,999 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $389,999 Active 202 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $389,999 Active 201 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $389,999 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $389,999 Active 199 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $394,999 Active 198 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $394,999 Active 197 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $394,999 Active 196 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $394,999 Active 195 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $394,999 Active 194 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $394,999 Active 193 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $394,999 Active 192 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $394,999 Active 191 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $394,999 Active 190 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $394,999 Active 189 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $394,999 Active 188 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $394,999 Active 187 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $394,999 Active 186 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $394,999 Active 185 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $394,999 Active 184 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $389,950 Active 183 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $389,950 Active 182 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $389,950 Active 181 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $389,950 Active 180 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $389,950 Active 179 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $389,950 Active 178 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $389,950 Active 177 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $389,950 Active 176 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $389,950 Active 175 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $389,950 Active 171 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $389,950 Active 169 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $389,950 Active 168 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $389,950 Active 164 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $389,950 Active 163 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $389,950 Active 162 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $389,950 Active 161 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $389,950 Active 158 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,271
• − Property taxes: −$7,571
• − Insurance: −$2,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,192
• − Management: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$14,682
• Taxable loss: −$19,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,650–$31,950 screening

The home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance and repairs. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the exterior siding, cleaning the windows, and inspecting the roof for any leaks or damage.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home more attractive to potential renters and increase its rental value. ↑
• Both Inspect the roof for any leaks or damage — Inspecting the roof for any leaks or damage can prevent costly repairs in the future and increase the home's value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $419,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Lynwood planNew construction (Plan inventory type)
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2132Plan home location: 2401 Twin Rivers Trl, Parrish FL 34219

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (plan home)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan home)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (plan home)