699 Lilac Dr · Providence, PA 17560

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $79k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home offers fresh paint, new carpet, a newer HVAC system, water heater, plus a modern updated kitchen. Situated on an elevated lot with a gorgeous view you'll love coming home to it. Why pay rent when you can own your own place. Lot rent includes Cable and trash.

Key facts

• Gorgeous view
• Elevated lot
• Newer hvac system

Tags

• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• MODERN UPDATED KITCHEN
• ELEVATED LOT
• GORGEOUS VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Solanco SD (rural): math 31% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #272 of 539 in PA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.03%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,624
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Ridgedale Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-3%)	14mo	$76,000	$78	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $38,616
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $97,930
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17560

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $413/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $545

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $824	-5% $804	+0% $785	+5% $765	+10% $745
Rent	-10% $663	-5% $724	+0% $785	+5% $845	+10% $906
Rate	-1.0pp $820	-0.5pp $802	base $785	+0.5pp $766	+1.0pp $748

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Groffdale Rd Quarryville, PA	3.0	1.5	1232	$1,600	$1.30	22d	1	0.94mi
405 Groffdale Rd Quarryville, PA	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,700	$1.45	15d	1	1.00mi
115 E State St Apt C Quarryville, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	24d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This beautiful home offers fresh paint, new carpet, a newer HVAC system, water heater, plus a modern updated kitchen. Situated on an elevated lot with a gorgeous view you'll love coming home to it. Why pay rent when you can own your own place. Lot rent includes Cable and trash.

2. 2026-04-23
   status Active 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This beautiful home offers fresh paint, new carpet, a newer HVAC system, water heater, plus a modern updated kitchen. Situated on an elevated lot with a gorgeous view you'll love coming home to it. Why pay rent when you can own your own place. Lot rent includes Cable and trash.

3. 2026-03-27
   status Pending 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This beautiful home offers fresh paint, new carpet, a newer HVAC system, water heater, plus a modern updated kitchen. Situated on an elevated lot with a gorgeous view you'll love coming home to it. Why pay rent when you can own your own place. Lot rent includes Cable and trash.

4. 2026-03-09
   status Active 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This beautiful home offers fresh paint, new carpet, a newer HVAC system, water heater, plus a modern updated kitchen. Situated on an elevated lot with a gorgeous view you'll love coming home to it. Why pay rent when you can own your own place. Lot rent includes Cable and trash.

5. 2026-01-30
   status Pending 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This beautiful home offers fresh paint, new carpet, a newer HVAC system, water heater, plus a modern updated kitchen. Situated on an elevated lot with a gorgeous view you'll love coming home to it. Why pay rent when you can own your own place. Lot rent includes Cable and trash.

6. 2026-01-15
   listed $70,000 Active 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This beautiful home offers fresh paint, new carpet, a newer HVAC system, water heater, plus a modern updated kitchen. Situated on an elevated lot with a gorgeous view you'll love coming home to it. Why pay rent when you can own your own place. Lot rent includes Cable and trash.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 83.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$413
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $8,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $7,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Solanco SD
• NCES district ID: 4221810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,326
• Composite: 38.41/100
• National rank: #4205
• State rank: #272 of 539 in PA

Livability — Providence

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,452

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 6% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.65%
• Current HPI: 270.262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $413 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.