41721 Carefree Ct · Brambleton, VA 20105

$1,048,000

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,433 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 $305/sqft · 10% below area Est $1166k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Gifford home design offers comfort and luxury across three levels and a partially finished basement. The main floor features an open-concept living area, starting with a long foyer leading into a spacious great room with a casual dining space and a well-appointed kitchen. The kitchen consists of a center island with a breakfast bar and a convenient walk-in pantry. Upstairs, the primary bedroom provides a serene retreat with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-like primary bath with dual-sink vanity, a luxurious shower, and a private water closet. Three secondary bedrooms, one with a private bath and two sharing full hall baths, offer ample closet space. The partially finished basement add

Key facts

• Center island
• Walk-in pantry
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-LIKE PRIMARY BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 41721 Carefree Ct, Aldie, VA 20105; List price provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property (Gifford plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,433 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home (Gifford plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.05M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-38k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $588k (43.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $523k (50.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $523k (50.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 2.1% in Brambleton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#214 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $522,829 (50.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.73%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,166,403
• List price: $1,048,000
• Delta: -10.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41684 Carefree Ct	0.08mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,360 (-2%)	8mo	$1,075,000	$320	77
23415 Parkside Village Cir	0.10mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,383 (-2%)	10mo	$1,128,586	$334	75
41676 Carefree Ct	0.09mi	5/5.0 (-1)	3,646 (+6%)	5mo	$1,038,000	$285	75
23467 Parkside Village Cir	0.12mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,379 (-2%)	13mo	$1,097,950	$325	72
23359 Parkside Village Cir	0.13mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,646 (+6%)	4mo	$1,110,000	$304	71
23475 Parkside Village Cir	0.12mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,646 (+6%)	13mo	$1,156,660	$317	64
23350 Parkside Village Cir	0.12mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,865 (+13%)	4mo	$1,094,485	$283	61
41550 Walking Meadow Dr	0.30mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+6%)	11mo	$1,079,950	$295	57
41562 Walking Meadow Dr	0.27mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,657 (+6%)	14mo	$1,169,950	$320	55
23416 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.24mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,687 (+7%)	17mo	$1,149,950	$312	54
23397 Sweet Magnolia Ct	0.28mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,856 (+12%)	15mo	$1,152,550	$299	45
41542 Walking Meadow Dr	0.31mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,900 (+14%)	14mo	$1,133,383	$291	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $37,702
• Equity at exit: $592,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $290,163
• Equity at exit: $1,020,845

Cash invested: $293,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20105

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,310 /mo · $15,720/yr
• Insurance: −$437
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,098
• Net cashflow: $-3,179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,252

Max offer price $588,051

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $262,000
• Closing costs: $31,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41935 Spring Air Dr Brambleton, VA	5.0	4.0	4104	$4,900	$1.19	43d	1	0.95mi
22773 Orchard Grove Dr Ashburn, VA	6.0	5.0	4692	$5,800	$1.24	2d	1	1.29mi
22810 Tawny Pine Sq Brambleton, VA	5.0	4.5	2740	$5,199	$1.90	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,048,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,048,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,048,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,048,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,048,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $1,071,000 Active 1027-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$58,704
• − Property taxes: −$15,720
• − Insurance: −$6,038
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,019
• − Management: −$5,019
• − Depreciation: −$30,487
• Taxable loss: −$58,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brambleton

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #6915

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Loudoun County · 393,062 people
• City population: 63,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 37,639
• Household income: $219,123
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 49.0

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 31% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 344.3873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B