42439 W Bethany Home Rd · Tonopah, AZ 85354

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1998 1.00 ac lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Upgraded Desert Retreat! Perfect for those looking to enter homeownership. This completely remodeled home is move-in ready with all-new appliances. Relax on your backyard deck and enjoy the nice views from your large 1.25-acre lot (Lot 2 of survey). Location is key: just north of Downtown Tonopah and near the proposed Bill Gates smart city, offering great future potential. Serviced by a private water company! Want more land? The buyer can also purchase the adjacent 3.75-acre lot to the south (Lot 3) to create a massive 5-acre compound. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• Backyard deck
• Large 1.25-acre lot
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• UPGRADED DESERT RETREAT
• COMPLETELY REMODELED HOME
• BACKYARD DECK
• LARGE 1.25-ACRE LOT
• PRIVATE WATER COMPANY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided to property
• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Other-type roof; Building area source: Assessor; Lot size approximately 43,560
• Exterior features: Lot allows horses; No fencing; Lot features: none specified

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full bath in the master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tonopah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#400 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tonopah Valley High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 785 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $199k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $177,368 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $122,904
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $350,237
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85354

• Home prices YoY: 30.5%
• Active inventory: 785
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $542/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $286	+0% $230	+5% $173	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $160	+0% $230	+5% $300	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $280	base $230	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $199,000 Active
16. 2026-01-01
    historical
17. 2025-09-19
    price $199,900
18. 2025-07-08
    price $205,000
19. 2025-03-06
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 2025-02-27
    listed $210,000 Active
21. 2025-02-10
    soldstatus $80,000
22. 2025-01-07
    historical
23. 2024-12-10
    price $210,000
24. 2024-07-22
    price $239,000
25. 2024-05-03
    listed $255,900 Active
26. 2024-04-30
    historical
27. 2024-02-06
    listed $269,900 Active
28. 2023-10-31
    soldstatus $92,500
29. 2023-08-01
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
30. 2023-08-01
    soldstatus $250,000
31. 2023-06-13
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $542 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$772/yr (+$64/mo · 142.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$542
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254)
• NCES district ID: 0407170
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,981
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7666
• State rank: #117 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tonopah

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #27231

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,731

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 117.45%
• Current HPI: 502.8512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-43.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $205,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-27 Listed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-22 Price Changed $239,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed $255,900 ARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Listed $269,900 ARMLS
• 2023-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2023-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-01 Sold (MLS) $250,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-13 Listed $350,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $542 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.