71 Big Pine Ln · Nocatee, FL 32081

$409,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Land · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 2,613 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Providence Homes in Woodland Park Nocatee! The Holly floor plan is the end unit featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 baths w/ 2-car garage. Family Room/Café, Sliding Glass Doors at Family Room, Ceramic tile flooring in main living area, laundry room and all baths, 42'' Upper Kitchen Cabinets w/ Crown Molding and soft close drawers, GE Stainless Steel Kitchen Appliances w/ Microwave vented to Exterior, Quartz Kitchen Countertops w/ tile backsplash, Stainless Steel Single Bowl undermount Kitchen Sink, Decora Rocker Switches, 8' Tall Doors at 1st Floor, and more! July/Aug completion.

Key facts

• Tall doors
• Sliding glass doors
• $250 HOA

Tags

• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• UPPER KITCHEN CABINETS
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• TALL DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-601 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley Ridge Academy (math 87% / reading 81%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,306 students, 14% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $830 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $281,815 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-64,777
• Equity at exit: $109,098

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-82,659
• Equity at exit: $123,462

Cash invested: $114,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 650
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,086/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,579

Max offer price $303,695

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-485	+0% $-601	+5% $-717	+10% $-833
Rent	-10% $-824	-5% $-713	+0% $-601	+5% $-490	+10% $-379
Rate	-1.0pp $-395	-0.5pp $-497	base $-601	+0.5pp $-707	+1.0pp $-815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,475
• Closing costs: $12,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,700	$1.70	22d	1	0.60mi
234 Taylor Ridge Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,700	$1.70	24d	1	0.60mi
94 Carlson Ct Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,548	$1.76	22d	1	0.61mi
345 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,771	$2.69	4d	145	1.01mi
95 Silver Creek Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,500	$1.30	24d	1	1.01mi
95 Silver Creek Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,449	$1.27	4d	1	1.01mi
440 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1141	$2,807	$2.46	3d	25	1.08mi
380 Burbank Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,087	$2.10	2d	43	1.11mi
48 Pine Shadow Pkwy Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1134	$3,887	$3.43	4d	46	1.26mi
377 Broomsedge Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	2126	$2,631	$1.24	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   listed $409,900 Active
3. 2025-06-30
   soldstatus $910,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,086 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,402 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,961
• − Property taxes: −$3,086
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,705
• − Management: −$2,705
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$11,924
• Taxable loss: −$14,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,507
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-55.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $409,900 realMLS
• 2025-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $910,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,086 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.