12878 Kellie Cir · Pea Ridge, AR 72756

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2008 1.51 ac lot Est $168k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold Before Print.

Key facts

• 1.51 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 111 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA/association fee (amount not provided); Near national forest

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Septic available (septic tank)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale (less than 25 years old)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Tie down foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Plumbed for ice maker
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (electric, heat pump); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Split bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.4% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $99k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.20%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,808
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13017 Scenic Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	13mo	$169,900	$138	70
13142 E Scenic Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	19mo	$219,000	$178	64
13113 Scenic Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	1mo	$169,000	$126	64
13124 Scenic Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	4mo	$182,400	$136	62
12938 Bryant Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	12mo	$150,000	$123	60
12822 Bryant Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	22mo	$185,000	$162	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $38,720
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $133,175
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72756

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $769

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $777	-5% $749	+0% $721	+5% $693	+10% $665
Rent	-10% $588	-5% $654	+0% $721	+5% $787	+10% $853
Rate	-1.0pp $770	-0.5pp $746	base $721	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-07
   price $99,000
2. 2026-02-02
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2021-05-03
   soldstatus $60,000
4. 2021-04-30
   soldstatus $60,000 18-char remark

   Show marketing remark (18 chars)

   Sold Before Print.

5. 2021-04-19
   listed $65,000 18-char remark

   Show marketing remark (18 chars)

   Sold Before Print.

6. 2018-05-24
   soldstatus $37,500
7. 2018-05-23
   soldstatus $37,500 480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (480 chars)

   1994 2bed/2bath Manufactured Home and 1.51 acres. Great Investment Property. Weatherization completed Jan 2018. Fridge, washer and dryer convey. Newer Roof, ready to carpet and paint. Double pane windows. Great view, corner lot, private. Large 16ft x 12ft front deck to enjoy the view. Current Termite policy. Permanent, vented block foundation. Fireplace. Split floor plan. Master bath has garden tub, large walk-in shower and double sink vanity. Near Avoca, not in city limits.

8. 2018-01-23
   listed $38,000 480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (480 chars)

   1994 2bed/2bath Manufactured Home and 1.51 acres. Great Investment Property. Weatherization completed Jan 2018. Fridge, washer and dryer convey. Newer Roof, ready to carpet and paint. Double pane windows. Great view, corner lot, private. Large 16ft x 12ft front deck to enjoy the view. Current Termite policy. Permanent, vented block foundation. Fireplace. Split floor plan. Master bath has garden tub, large walk-in shower and double sink vanity. Near Avoca, not in city limits.

9. 1994-12-13
   soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $6,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pea Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 9,997
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 41,791
• Household income: $72,230
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 30% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.57%
• Current HPI: 366.432
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+110.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $99,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $125,000 NWARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $60,000 NWARMLS
• 2021-04-19 Listed $65,000 NWARMLS
• 2018-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2018-05-23 Sold (MLS) $37,500 NWARMLS
• 2018-01-23 Listed $38,000 NWARMLS
• 1994-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.