411 Warford Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$84,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1950 6,050 sqft lot $88/sqft · 10% above area Est $77k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is part of a 25-home single-family investment portfolio across North County, Saint Louis. Sellers are open to individual sales or grouped packages. SELLERS WLL NOT ACCEPT SITE UNSEEN OFFERS. Buyers must complete a walkthrough prior to submitting an offer. Properties are sold as is. Seller will make no repairs. Utilities will not be turned on. Homes are priced to reflect current condition and allow room for renovation and refinance. Buyers must secure financing appropriate for properties in current condition. DSCR and traditional financing may not qualify due to required repairs. Homes are priced accordingly and are well suited for investors pursuing VALUE-ADD STRATEGIES such as buy, rehab, rent, refinance. Earnest money deposit will be non refundable once contract is executed, except as outlined in the contract.

Key facts

• 6,050 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 136 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.21%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,120
• List price: $84,500
• Delta: 9.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
826 Walters Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (-4%)	2mo	$60,000	$65	75
318 N Dade Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,073 (+12%)	4mo	$145,000	$135	68
435 N Clay Ave	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (+1%)	3mo	$155,000	$159	64
308 Henquin Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	861 (-10%)	1mo	$80,000	$93	62
115 Lawrence Ave	0.58mi	2/1.5 (-1)	936 (-3%)	0mo	$64,500	$69	61
406 Tiffin Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-2%)	5mo	$105,000	$111	59
53 N Dade Ave	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,036 (+8%)	5mo	$40,000	$39	59
6625 Thurston Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	939 (-2%)	4mo	$74,900	$80	56
8139 Blanchard Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (+2%)	4mo	$69,900	$71	56
211 Frost Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+11%)	2mo	$84,900	$80	51
6006 Cascade Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+8%)	1mo	$75,000	$72	46
221 S Harvey Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	3mo	$135,000	$156	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $26,244
• Equity at exit: $12,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $97,221
• Equity at exit: $7,306

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $685/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $678

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	17d	1	0.30mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	43d	1	0.39mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.40mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	10d	1	0.40mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	16d	1	0.45mi
6132 Eaton Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,125	$1.42	23d	1	0.52mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	0.60mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,300	$1.38	43d	1	0.68mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,400	$1.49	23d	1	0.68mi
6044 Cascade Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	7d	1	0.69mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	0.74mi
8306 Whitewater Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,195	$1.51	7d	1	0.78mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	43d	1	0.79mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	7d	1	0.86mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	43d	1	0.89mi
24 Vierling Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,290	$1.52	7d	1	0.90mi
6214 Jefferson Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,195	$1.46	23d	1	0.90mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	43d	1	0.91mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.92mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	20d	1	0.94mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	43d	1	0.94mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	0.97mi
6334 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	4d	1	0.98mi
6336 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,175	$1.63	43d	1	0.98mi
6315 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	739	$1,175	$1.59	16d	1	0.99mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	7d	1	1.01mi
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	1.03mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	12d	1	1.06mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	7d	1	1.06mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	43d	1	1.06mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	43d	1	1.07mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	43d	1	1.08mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	23d	1	1.09mi
153 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1076	$1,195	$1.11	19d	1	1.09mi
6234 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	846	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	1.11mi
46 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,175	$1.26	43d	1	1.11mi
6042 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,495	$1.44	23d	1	1.13mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	1.13mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	43d	1	1.13mi
171 Elbring Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,395	$1.38	12d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,500 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,500 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,500 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,500 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,500 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,500 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,500 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,500 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,500 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,500 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,500 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,500 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,500 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,500 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-02-02
    listed $84,500 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (842 chars)

    This property is part of a 25-home single-family investment portfolio across North County, Saint Louis. Sellers are open to individual sales or grouped packages. SELLERS WLL NOT ACCEPT SITE UNSEEN OFFERS. Buyers must complete a walkthrough prior to submitting an offer. Properties are sold as is. Seller will make no repairs. Utilities will not be turned on. Homes are priced to reflect current condition and allow room for renovation and refinance. Buyers must secure financing appropriate for properties in current condition. DSCR and traditional financing may not qualify due to required repairs. Homes are priced accordingly and are well suited for investors pursuing VALUE-ADD STRATEGIES such as buy, rehab, rent, refinance. Earnest money deposit will be non refundable once contract is executed, except as outlined in the contract.

16. 1996-02-13
    soldstatus
17. 1995-09-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $685 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$685
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,278
• − Management: −$1,278
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $5,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $4,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $84,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $685 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.