4900 N Hwy 99 · Stockton, CA 95212

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Land · 190 Days on market

Built 1972 $93/sqft · 38% above area Est $119k · 38% over $838/mo HOA · 28% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained home in Stockton Verde, an All-Age Park with thoughtful upgrades inside and out. Key updates include a freshly painted interior, new HVAC with returns, 40-gallon water heater and Roof coated/sealed in 2024. The kitchen features a custom shelved pantry, wainscoting backsplash, granite-look laminate counters, stainless steel appliances (refrigerator to convey) and both a breakfast nook and formal dining area with a built-in hutch. Tasteful laminate flooring, faux wood blinds, lighted outlet coverings and new ceiling fans run throughout. The living room includes a remote-operated fan and a faux wood accent wall. The spacious laundry room offers upper/lower cabinetry and room fo

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Formal dining area
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CUSTOM SHELVED PANTRY
• WAINSCOTING BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE-LOOK LAMINATE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• FORMAL DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,210
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 38.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $389
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $36,803
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$838
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,503

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $474	+0% $417	+5% $360	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $297	+0% $417	+5% $537	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $459	base $417	+0.5pp $374	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2554 Pine Brook Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,800	$1.27	3d	1	1.18mi
8033 Farin Ct Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,700	$1.34	24d	1	1.29mi
8224 Shay Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	2108	$2,700	$1.28	3d	1	1.33mi
5952 Dresden Way Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	2398	$3,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.34mi
4213 Kirsten Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	1969	$2,595	$1.32	3d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $838 · $10,056/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 171 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,910
• − Management: −$2,910
• − HOA: −$10,056
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $3,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$759
• After-tax cash flow: $4,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $21,021 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.