14961 Aguila · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2017 5,663 sqft lot Est $201k · 12% over ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2017

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Association fee paid monthly; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one garage space (total 2 parking spaces, 1 covered)
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property; Faces north
• Construction: CBS construction; Metal roof; Built in public-records area of 1,767 living area
• Exterior features: Screened patio; Patio; Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Bedroom layout with stacked rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.E.S.T. Prep Magnet (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,010 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,401/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.67%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,438
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6539 Yedra Ave	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,839 (+4%)	2mo	$309,000	$168	65
6449 Alemendra St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,753 (-1%)	5mo	$309,000	$176	58
6631 Nuevo Lagos	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-3%)	21mo	$175,000	$102	54
14374 Azucena Court Ct	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,599 (-10%)	9mo	$175,000	$109	46
6655 Alemendra St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-13%)	2mo	$175,000	$114	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,183
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $37,718
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,396/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 Spanish Lakes Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	23d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    listed $224,900 Active
18. 2026-04-23
    historical
19. 2026-02-28
    price $227,900
20. 2026-01-04
    price $232,900
21. 2025-12-06
    price $234,900
22. 2025-11-13
    price $239,900
23. 2025-10-23
    listed $245,000 Active
24. 2025-06-04
    historical
25. 2025-02-16
    price $260,000
26. 2025-02-16
    price $260,000
27. 2024-10-17
    listed $295,000 Active
28. 2024-10-17
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,396 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,396
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $2,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$610
• After-tax cash flow: $5,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $224,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $227,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $232,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $234,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $239,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $245,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $260,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $260,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $295,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $295,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,396 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.