5422 Botany Ln · Houston, TX 77048

$195,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1966 6,600 sqft lot $150/sqft · 11% below area Est $220k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Big family? you at the right place. 3 bedrooms, possible 4, 2 full baths and 1 car garage, ready for a new family. ..

Key facts

• 6,600 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 1966; Entry level on slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 9); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 11); Three total rooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and dining combined; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Codwell El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 329 students, 93% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,268 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.59%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,289
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -11.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5531 Elm Tree Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+1%)	3mo	$197,500	$150	74
11007 Glenhollow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+4%)	4mo	$170,000	$125	69
11428 Dark Amethyst Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+8%)	0mo	$280,540	$200	63
5502 Elm Tree Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	7mo	$175,000	$144	62
5617 Madden Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	5mo	$279,280	$194	61
5206 Fairgreen Ln	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,418 (+9%)	6mo	$164,000	$116	61
5023 Denoron Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+6%)	4mo	$189,999	$138	56
5313 Basquiat Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,427 (+9%)	4mo	$279,538	$196	52
5243 Greylog Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (+13%)	5mo	$149,900	$101	47
11926 Panay Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+15%)	2mo	$230,000	$154	47
12123 Murr Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+13%)	6mo	$225,000	$152	36
11403 Mosscrest Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-14%)	6mo	$154,900	$137	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,415
• Equity at exit: $83,449

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $39,066
• Equity at exit: $125,407

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,960/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,709

Max offer price $166,139

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-108	+0% $-163	+5% $-219	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-223	+0% $-163	+5% $-104	+10% $-45
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-114	base $-163	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	12d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	12d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	7d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	9d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	4d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,114	$1.05	0d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	12d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,073	$1.01	0d	1	0.23mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,273	$1.09	0d	1	0.23mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	26d	1	0.41mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,455	$1.11	0d	1	0.57mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	1d	13	0.59mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	20d	1	0.59mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	22d	1	0.62mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	45d	1	0.92mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	15d	1	0.99mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	1d	1	1.00mi
6103 El Granate Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1755	$1,585	$0.90	26d	1	1.04mi
6107 El Granate Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,000	$0.84	7d	1	1.05mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	1d	1	1.06mi
6160 Madden Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,209	$1.33	1d	266	1.12mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	1.30mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	45d	1	1.30mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.32mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	7d	1	1.38mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	9d	1	1.46mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	26d	1	1.46mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	1	1.47mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-04-24
    listed $195,000 Active 116-char remark
14. 2017-03-31
    soldstatus
15. 2013-11-15
    soldstatus
16. 1998-12-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$609/yr (+$51/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,960
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $-668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2017-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,960 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.