123 Wilson Cir · Williamsburg, VA 23188

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 0.28 ac lot Est $340k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Special!! Don't miss out on this 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch in convenient area. Property sold strictly as is and seller to make no repairs.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA/POA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Ranch style; 1 story; Crawl foundation
• Construction: Brick siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Deck; Patio; Wood fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Attic; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in James City County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• James City County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Wilson Cir	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,400 (0%)	8mo	$110,000	$79	88
1172 Hitchens Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	7mo	$429,000	$286	70
1140 Hitchens Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+8%)	7mo	$429,000	$285	68
206 Nina Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	9mo	$350,000	$240	67
1156 Hitchens Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+7%)	12mo	$427,000	$284	65
105 Peninsula St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,374 (-2%)	13mo	$212,000	$154	65
105 Peninsula St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,374 (-2%)	13mo	$212,000	$154	65
1148 Hitchens Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+8%)	12mo	$447,500	$297	65
317 Farmville Ln	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+11%)	10mo	$369,000	$237	64
200 Nina Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+10%)	13mo	$375,000	$243	56
102 Haradd Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-10%)	13mo	$330,000	$261	53
126 Oslo Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,578 (+13%)	11mo	$365,000	$231	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,437
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $11,134
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23188

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,148/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,018

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7537 Luminary Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,600	$1.48	1d	1	0.35mi
1603 Rustads Cir Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1376	$2,200	$1.60	3d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 145-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,148
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$128
• After-tax cash flow: $4,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: James City County · 45,803 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 45,803
• Household income: $103,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (James City County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,286 people
• By 2030: 89,687 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 99,580 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 108,487 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 128,950 · +53.0%
• By 2100: 138,702 · +64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · James City

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.5% · R 46.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+4.8 2016: R+5.1 2012: R+12.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.65%
• Current HPI: 226.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $250,000 REINMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $250,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,148 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.